White Christmas? Touch and go this year

"Paul, will we have a white Christmas?"

It's the perennial December question in Minnesota. A blanket of white by Dec. 25 this year has looked touch and go for a couple of weeks. Looking at next week's maps, the odds of a white Christmas appear to be about 50/50 as we approach one week until Christmas Eve.

Last month U.S. snow cover peaked at 50.2 percent on Nov. 18. Here's where snow cover in the United States stands as of now.

Zooming into Minnesota, over half of the state now has at least a thin blanket of white after our weekend thaw and Monday night snow.

The historical odds of a white Christmas run at 72 percent for the Twin Cities. Those odds increase to 90 percent to 100 percent as you head north toward the Iron Range and Ely.

The last brown Christmas in the Twin Cities? Just three years ago in 2011. Looking back at the past 35 years, there have been four brown Christmases since 1997 and eight since 1979.

Dry this week

We won't be adding to current snow cover the rest of this week. Dry Canadian high pressure is building south.

The cool air mass is near average for mid-December, but a weekend warming trend pushes us back into warmer than average territory. The Global Forecast System is hinting at a minor system that could bring at least some rain/snow mix by next Monday.

The GFS and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are hinting at the notion of some kind of low developing near Minnesota by next Monday and Tuesday. The precise location and effects are still unclear. At this point I'm leaning toward a rain snow mix Monday that may end with some light accumulations by Tuesday.

Model runs over the next 48 hours should hopefully clarify snow chances early next week.

If we get a white Christmas this year, it may be by the skin of your teeth.

Stay tuned.