Tracking weekend thaw, then rain to snow?

It’s a beautiful wintry sunrise at the Weather Lab in the west metro this morning.

Sunrise in Victoria. Paul Huttner / MPR News

Our winter landscape comes early this season. But this week’s unseasonable cold snap is about to fade. We are just 24 hours away from a significant temp surge and a weekend thaw.

Southerly winds and a warm front on the map over Minnesota? What a concept.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Then the forecast gets a little more complex.

Temps make a big push this weekend. We start around zero degrees Friday morning, and push 40 by Sunday noon. From zero to 40 in 53 hours?

Here’s the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts output.

Weatherspark

Models still disagree on the eventual track of Monday’s storm. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System slides the bulk of system just east of the metro but grazes northeast Minnesota with significant snow.

The European model is further west, and includes the metro in a sloppy rain to mix to accumulating snow scenario on Monday.

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned.