Super Typhoon Nuri may trigger US arctic outbreak

Typhoon watchers in the Western Pacific watched in awe this weekend as Super Typhoon Nuri exploded into what could be the strongest storm on planet earth this year.

As Nuri slams into the North Pacific later this week, it could trigger a downstream “domino effect” November arctic outbreak in the central and eastern U.S. this weekend.

First the storm.

Nuri is packing sustained 180 miles per hour winds. The storm has wrapped into an impressively intense tropical cyclone with sharply defined concentric eyewall 15 miles across.

Super Typhoon Nuri. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Nuri’s rapid deepening over the weekend caught many observers by surprise.  The storm’s central pressure deepened an incredible 65 millibars in 24 hours to 910 millibars according to the  Japan Meteorological Agency.

Japan Meteorological Agency

Nuri is expected to brush by Japan with a close call as the storm curves northeast heading for the western Aleutian Islands.

Weather Underground

Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters elaborates on why Nuri has a chance to break Alaska’s all time low pressure record.

The GFS and European models are both predicting the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Nuri will become a sub-925 mb low in the western Aleutian Islands on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the 12Z Monday run of the European model predicting ex-Nuri will bottom out at 916 mb at 06Z Saturday. According to wunderground’s weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 926 mb at St. Paul Island and Dutch Harbor on October 25 – 26, 1977, so ex-Nuri has a chance to beat that record.

Raging Pacific: Nuri becomes 5th category 5 storm this year.

Warm ocean waters in the Pacific have fueled an active storms season this year. Here’s more on the perspective of the raging Pacific in 2014 from Jeff Masters.

Nuri is Earth’s fifth Category 5 storm of 2014
Nuri is Earth’s fifth Category 5 storm of the year, and the third in the Western Pacific. In addition to Super Typhoon Vongfong, the other Western Pacific Cat 5 in 2014 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm.

Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China’s Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis.

The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 – 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Domino effect? Nuri’s Aleutian vacation may trigger US cold wave

As Nuri tracks north toward the Bearing Sea, it may set off a sequence of atmospheric events that could drive a shot of significantly below average November cold into Minnesota and the eastern US. Nuri’s downstream ripple effect could trigger a downstream trough in the eastern US that may bring a cold wave into Minnesota.

The latest Global Forecast System runs suggest a buckling jet stream and a deepening low pressure trough over Minnesota and the eastern US in the six to 10 day time frame. This is the beginning stages of an arctic outbreak.

Climate Reanalyzer

The latest 16 day GFS output is cranking out high temps for the metro in the 20s and 30s starting this weekend into next week.

NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Temps 15 to 20 degrees below average and snow chances next week?

The Euro seems to agree.

Weatherspark

Stay tuned!