Weather Whiplash: Slop storm today, 50s and 60s in Minnesota this weekend

Welcome to another free ride on Minnesota's Weather Midway.

A breezy and milder 41.1 degrees at the Weather Lab sure felt nice Wednesday afternoon.

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Paul Huttner/MPR News

40 degrees - high at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Wednesday

Now, our long forecast Thursday weather system is moving in. Here's the breakdown on our latest weather-maker that delivers a wide variety of wet to wintry weather conditions across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

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Winter weather advisories for Thursday for central and northeast Minnesota and on the northwest edge of the Twin Cities metro area.

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Twin Cities NWS

The system

A strong low pressure system winding up in the Northern Rockies plows into Minnesota Thursday. Click the map below to roll the surface animation from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Digital Forecast Database.

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NOAA

Precip timing

Precipitation moves into Minnesota overnight, and spreads northeast early Thursday morning. It's warm enough for mostly rain from the metro south during the mornings. Expect some rain falling with wet streets for the morning commute.

Farther north toward Duluth it's a wintry, and potentially  icy mix. Here's a closer look at the 6 a.m. weather map which gives a pretty good layout of where rain (green) and wintry precipitation is expected.

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NOAA

By late morning and lunchtime, a pretty good burst of rain is likely in the metro. The rain snow line moves closer to the northwest metro, and rain mixes with and changes to a wet sloppy snow across the metro from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.

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NOAA

As rain transitions to snow across the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon. Models differ on precise timing (what's new?) but a reasonable assumption is for a rain snow mix to transition to all snow from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours.

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Weatherspark

Metro PM rush snow burst?

I'm still waiting for an easy winter spring storm with clear definition on rain snow lines and timing. Why not another razor's edge rain/snow line system for the metro?

This one looks likely to produce a brief two- to three-hour snow burst during the afternoon rush for the metro, as the heaviest plowable snows fall to the north. Expect snow during Thursday afernoon rush hour in the metro. The best chance for a potentially "plowable"snow is in the north and northwest metro.

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Iowa State University

Quick mover favors lower metro snowfall totals?

It looks like the precipitation shield will move out fairly quickly from west to east Thursday evening. That leaves only a few hour window from the initial change from rain to snow in the metro -- and when the system pulls out.

Throw in temps above freezing, daylight, and rain soaked pavement and you have several factors working against heavy metro totals. The heaviest bands of snow still look to favor a swath from St. Cloud through Duluth and the North Shore.

Once again, forecast models have been all over the map with metro snowfall for this system. So far, I like the notion that the 12Z North American Mesoscale Forecast System model laid out, which suggests a burst of late afternoon snow that produces a coating to two inches in most of the metro -- with a better chance for two to four inches in the northwest and northern metro communities.

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wxcaster.com

Epicenter: North Shore

The heaviest snowfall totals once again favor that swath from St. Cloud through the Iron range, Duluth and the North Shore. Here's the take of the Duluth office of the National Weather Service on snowfall.

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Bottom Line: Expect rain to snow tomorrow in the metro and southern Minnesota. Ice and snow favors central and north. Rain changes to snow in the metro tomorrow afternoon, and a brief snow burst is likely during afternoon rush hour. Winter weather advisories for 3 to 5 inches are up (just) northwest and north of the heart of the metro.

Weekend warm up still on the way!

From snow to sunshine and 50s in just 72 hours? Why not? Here's a look at the much warmer air mass pushing into Minnesota this weekend.

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Weatherspark

I am leaning toward the warmer Euro solution for this weekend. Temperatures in the mid-upper 50s seem a lock for the metro Sunday, and I won't be the least bit surprised to see a bank thermometer flashing 60 degrees Sunday afternoon in southwest metro communities like Excelsior, Chaska or Victoria or Waconia.

Temperatures in the 60s will again edge into the snow free areas of southwest Minnesota by Sunday afternoon.

Hang in there Minnesota!