Update: Storm track trends sightly south, 2″ to 6″ likely for metro

Here’s a quick update from The late Monday night model runs.

Our mid-March storm is still on track for Minnesota with one noticeable trend in the late evening model runs. The storm track is trending even further south and east. This increases confidence for snowfall in the metro. You can monitor updates to NWS warnings here.

318 wsx

A light early AM mix may brush the Twin Cities, with the main event coming Tuesday late PM and especially Tuesday night. Here’s a late update from the Twin Cities NWS on precip timing.

318 timing

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

One more major model run Tuesday AM before the snow flies for real later Tuesday in the metro.

Some key forecast trends as we move into early Tuesday morning.

  • Mixed precip and all snow will increasing in western & central Minnesota overnight.
  • Light early AM mix possible in metro at times, but main storm accumulations arrive later PM & tonight.
  • Heavier mixed precip bands move in and change to all snow late PM & evening across metro.
  • Storm track has trended slightly east/south…that means more snow likely for metro as heavier band shifts closer.
  • Latest thinking from the Weather Lab is 6” to 12” northwest of metro along a Redwood Falls, St. Cloud-Mille Lacs-Hinckley-Duluth & South Shore of Superior zone.
  • Metro gets a burst of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday evening & night…about 12 hours of snow overall ending early Wednesday AM.
  • My latest thinking on metro accumulations is 2” to 6”…with the potential for heaviest totals in the north & west metro.
  • Highest impact times start during Tuesday PM rush hour through Tuesday night into early Wednesday AM rush.

Here’s the latest overnight GFS snowfall output map. Note the trend to shift the heaviest snow band slightly south…and to bump metro snowfall totals a couple of inches.

Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com

Bottom Line: Expect winter storm conditions to increase and spread south and east in Minnesota throughout the day. A mix of rain, sleet snow will likely approach the metro from the west between 3pm and 6pm, and change to all snow Tuesday evening. A burst of 3-6 hours of heavy wet snow is likely in the metro and most of central Minnesota Tuesday evening.

Stay tuned as we refine track and tweak snow forecast Tuesday.