Snow cover takes a hit, trending cooler this weekend
Springtime Symphony
I can finally see my roof again.
Just two weeks ago, I wondered if I would ever see my rooftop again as it was buried under two feet of snow.
I rediscovered this week that I have a paved driveway too. The snow mountains I shoveled all winter long along my front walkway don't seem quite as intimidating as they did last week. The sweet music of water running through downspouts. It's the little things in life.
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Seasonal Weather Progress in March in Minnesota.
50 degrees -- high at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Thursday
10" snow cover at MSP Airport
11" snow cover melted in the Twin Cities since March 1st
Spring - from space
Crystal clear blue skies and a dry clean air mass made for some great satellite shots over Minnesota Thursday. Here's a look at the dwindling snow cover, and the clearly defined back edge of the snow pack working through south central Minnesota from NASA's MODIS Terra 1000 meter resolution shot.
A closer look (250 meter resolution) at Duluth and western tip of Lake Superior shows ice near shore around Duluth and in The Apostle Islands, with open water and ice floes in the big lake.
Snow map shrinkage
Yes there's still deep snow (two feet or more) in northeast Minnesota. But snow has disappeared from the west, and is quickly fading elsewhere.
Cooling trend
The forecast models were more optimistic about holding onto some warmth for a while earlier this week. Our next March cool front sweeps in Friday. After a mild start, you'll notice the cooler breezes by Friday night and into the weekend.
I'm keeping an eye on a potential rain or snow maker from St. Patty's Day night into next Tuesday. It's still very early, but the Global Forecast System and Euro models, among others, are spinning up a low and tracking it through Iowa by Tuesday. There could be enough cold air in place to produce a band of snow across south central Minnesota into Wisconsin.
As I said yesterday even though the models were hinting at a mostly dry and snow-free March, that would be a naively optimistic forecast in Minnesota.
Stay tuned on this one.
Season snowfall tops 100" in northeast Minnesota
We know the the 'North Shore Ridge' is the Snow Capital of Minnesota. This winter bears that out once again, as snowfall totals have topped 100 inches on the hill and along the Shore this winter.
My MPR colleague Mark Seeley has the numbers, and a mention of Wednesday's impressive Microscale Lake-Effect event near Duluth in a preview of this week's Weather Talk.
Topic: North shore snowfall on March 12
A very localized snow storm on Wednesday, March 12 brought significant new snow to portions of Carlton and St Louis Counties in northeastern Minnesota. A number of observers reported amounts ranging from 1 to 5 inches. Much of this snow fell on ice from meltwater due to the thawing temperatures of earlier in the week, so roads and highways were slippery during the commuting hours of Wednesday morning. No daily snowfall records were set, but the seasonal accumulations of snowfall for the winter of 2013-2014 in this area of the state are getting to be large numbers. Some of the total snowfalls for the season include 89.5 inches at Duluth, 96 inches at Isabella, 104 inches at Tofte, 106 inches at Two Harbors, 88.5 inches at Babbitt, 87.6 inches at Cook, 84.7 inches at Grand Marais, 80 inches at Grand Portage, 79 inches at Kabetogama, 78.9 inches at Orr, 75.1 inches at Carlton, 71.7 inches at Cloquet, 70 inches at Grand Rapids, and 69 inches at Wright.
Mark also talks about the potential onset of a new El Nino next fall and winter.
Topic: ENSO may form in 2014
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center weekly discussion of the El Nino Southern Oscillation this week highlighted an increasing probability for an El Nino episode to form during the summer months. There is slightly greater than a 50 percent probability that this will happen according to the suite of models used by the CPC. This would likely have little influence on summer weather patterns in the Western Great Lakes, but it may have influence over the fall and winter seasons later this year. You can find more discussion on this topic at....http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
If El Nino does develop next fall, it could herald a milder winter than what we endured this winter.
Stay tuned.