Winter Storm and Blizzard warnings, expect snow and wind Thursday

Another Winter Storm Takes Aim

Our next major winter storm is on the way. The only question at this late hour is, exactly where will the heaviest snow bands set up?

Wednesday afternoon's model runs favor a more westward storm track, That keeps the Twin Cities firmly in winter storm warning territory, and the chances for moderate to heavy snowfall totals look good -- especially for the eastern part of the metro area. Blizzard warnings are flying south of the Twin Cities. This winter has brought us everything except locusts.

Here's the latest storm overview from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.

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It still looks like the heaviest bands of snow will fall in western Wisconsin where up to 6 to 12 inches or more could fall.

Here's a few key headlines for the storm:

• Snow begins to bust out in eastern Minnesota and the metro early Thursday between 5 and 8 a.m.

• Rain and sleet may be mixed in early Thursday.

• Temperatures during the morning rush hour may be at or just above freezing, so roads may be mostly wet with some accumulating snow. Expect some traffic delays, but probably not as bad as many we’ve seen this winter.

• Snow intensity increases late morning and afternoon.

• Major problems for the late afternoon rush hour Thursday. Heavy snow and wind will likely Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The Twin Cities will be on the edge of heavy snow band, with less snow in the west and more in the east.

• Best estimate of overall metro area snowfall total range at this point: 2 to 4 inches in the far west metro and 3 to 8 inches in the central and east metro. Some snow totals of 8 inches or more will be likely in Wisconsin.

• Snow continues Thursday night, ending overnight.

• WIND will be a major factor with this storm. Northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph or higher will cause severe blowing snow in open areas.

Here's the latest consensus on the surface low position late Thursday. The probable track west of Milwaukee lays out the heaviest snow bands in western Wisconsin, with the Twin Cities right on the edge of the heavy snow zone.

Here's the full loop of the storm track from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Click the map to animate.

The La Crosse NWS is appropriately trotting out some enhanced language for this storm, calling it "dangerous." Note the layout that places the Twin Cities in the heaviest snow zone.

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Duluth gets in on the act with warnings as well.

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Tracking the heavy snow bands 

The models have been erratic with storm track and placing the heavy snow bands with this system. Why should any storm be easy?

The 12Z Global Forecast System run seems to be the most middle solution, and lays out a general 3- to 8-inch band across the metro with heaviest totals east.

Wind will be a major factor by Thursday night. Here's the forecast gusts from NOAA.

Bottom Line: Expect moderate to heavy snow and wind Thursday. Travel conditions will be brutal as the day wears on, especially in the afternoon and evening. High winds gusting to 40 mph  or higher will be a major feature with this storm, producing blizzard conditions in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sections of Interstate 35 may be closed Thursday.

Stay safe out there!