Bright sunshine doesn’t bring warmth; snow possible for southeast Minnesota

Bright sunshine reflecting off the snow cover landscape may have made us feel good on this bitter cold day, but it did not help push the thermometer up much this afternoon.

Afternoon readings were still well below zero in many places.  As the sun begins to set, the temperatures will slip. Steady temperatures are likely in western Minnesota after midnight due to increasing southeast winds and some cloud cover.

A record low temperature for this date was set at International Falls, Minn., this morning of 36 degrees below zero.  This breaks the old record of  30 below zero set in 1962.

The high temperature of 1 above zero at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International just missed setting the record low maximum, which remains 1 below zero for this date.

Despite the prolonged cold, I haven't found a record cold temperature for the Twin Cities from December through Feb. 27.

In yesterday afternoon's blog, I posted the Rapid Update Cycle Model temperature forecast valid at 6 a.m. today.  It is shown below to refresh your memory.  Note there is a forecast of 45 below zero temperatures in northern Minnesota.

Here are the lows as depicted by the Midwest Regional Climate Center for this morning.  They appear uniformly "warmer."

From inside the weather lab, my observation this winter season is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model output for low temperatures has been nearly consistently too cold.

When I shared this observation with the Tom Hultquist, the science officer for the National Weather Service in Chanhassen,  he responded in part with this comment:

Part of the problem is that they haven't been able to re-run statistics/calibration for a number of years, and as a result the current stats aren't even up-to-date with the current model configuration (and its biases, etc), never-mind any sort of climate change signal.

The models, particularly the GFS, may not be accounting for the additional carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases. Observations of carbon dioxide show a steady increase over the decades.

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The saw tooth appearance is due to the seasonal impact of summer and winter. Plants and trees take in more carbon dioxide in the summer.

Let's see what happens with the verification of Sunday morning's minimum temperatures. The Global Forecast System model calls for 17 below at the Twin Cities International Airport, while the North American Mesoscale Forecast System model predicts a low of 9 below zero.

As an old time forecaster, you learn the model bias, and in many instances make the correction, that usually results in a compromise of the two forecasts.  The National Weather Service predicts a low for Sunday morning of 13 below.

Here's your cold highs for Sunday. By Sunday afternoon you'll likely be ready to shed cabin fever and take in an activity.

Snow on Friday should swipe the Twin Cities with a glancing blow.  A couple of inches are possible in southeast Minnesota.  And another swath of snow is expected in about the same region on Saturday. With the cold temperatures hampering the effect of road chemicals even a coating can be greasy.

Cold temperatures continue into early next week.

The National Weather Service is forecasting highs well below normal next Thursday.

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