Clipper brings snow, slick AM rush

It's been 3 weeks since snowfall of at least 1 inch dusted the Twin Cities on Christmas Eve.

Our latest snow opportunity took it's time but arrived overnight.

The system is in the developing phase as it moves over Minnesota through Tuesday morning. The trend is for heavier snowfall the further east you go as the system gets better organized. The Twin Cities NWS has picked up on the trend of an erratic system, and forecast confidence is unusually low with this one.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Winter weather advisories remain posted for most of southern Minnesota into Tuesday.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN ACCUMULATING BY LATE THIS EVENING... AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BLOWING SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

Lower than usual forecast confidence

The reliability of some of my favorite snowfall models has served me well so far this snowfall season. I've had been a pretty good run with snowfall forecasts so far this winter. I wish I felt the same about this one.

Because this system is still in the developing phases as it transits overhead into Tuesday morning, bust potential is higher than usual. I'm still sticking with the overall 1" to 3" metro snowfall range from the morning forecast, but this one will be' interesting.' The system will pick up steam as it head into Wisconsin, and that should mean heavier snowfall totals east along I-94.

Here's the latest NAM snowfall trend, which captures the notion of an increasing snowfall event as you move east of the Twin Cities.

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Image: wxcaster.com

 Bottom Line:

  • Expect some snow overnight and into Tuesday morning

  • Snowfall totals of 1" to 3" are most likely

  • Heavier totals may fall east of the metro into Wisconsin

  • Tuesday AM rush will likely be slower than usual with some snow covered slick roads