One-day thaw, clippers Friday and Sunday, deep freeze returns Monday

Up and down weather market

Tracking the weather is a bit like tracking the stock market. What will the Dow or your 401k be on March 23? I have no idea. I do think it will be significantly warmer than today on March 23. I'm just not sure how much warmer.

The next few days will test our ability to adapt to rapidly changing temperatures. Bursts of light snow will sail overhead, and by the time Sunday evening rolls around you may be shoveling another 2 to 4 inches off your front walk.

It's the death of a thousand snowy cuts this winter. That's a good thing if you're into outdoor winter sports. Not so good if you "pay by the plow."

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Friday is your day to get out and enjoy all a Minnesota winter has to offer if you want to ski, or play in a pond hockey tournament like some wayward weatherman who feels at home on the ice.

We celebrate winter in Minnesota. It's just a whole lot easier to do when temperatures are above zero, and snow doesn't gum up your commute. And, of course, far more Minnesotans enjoy being outside in winter when temps are above zero.

Friday clipper and micro-thaw

Attention Minnesota Weather Shoppers. This is a special one-day-only event so act now.

Seriously, Friday looks like the best day in the next week to really get out and enjoy all Minnesota has to offer in winter. The St. Paul Winter Carnival hits high gear this weekend. Friday could be the best day to see the (snow glazed) ice sculptures in Rice Park.

Temperatures rise overnight into Friday. We should top out at or above the thawing point Friday afternoon. A clipper brings two shots of snow. One for the morning rush and another for afternoon rush.

As the Church Lady would say, How con-ven-ient.

The next arctic front blows in Saturday morning. Temps will hover just above zero this weekend. Here's a look at the temp roller coaster ride this weekend which features two shots of snow Friday, and another Saturday night into Sunday.

Polar vortex III on Monday?

I am hearing form many of you that you're getting tired, even a little worn down by the cold. I get it. There may be some moderation ahead in the next two weeks, but more polar pain lies ahead starting Sunday night.

I don't think we'll get as cold as what we saw earlier in January but temperatures of -15 to -20 degrees seem likely in the Twin Cities metro area again Monday and Tuesday mornings. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model has actually done a much better job than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts lately in gauging the severity of these incoming arctic waves. Here's the read on temps early next week.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

And it may not be an oncoming Arctic Express train. The GFS is hinting at some moderation by next weekend. Not a full blown warm up, but temperatures mostly above zero would be easier to operate in than what we'll deal with early next week.

Hang in there!