Winter Whiplash: 60 degrees warmer this weekend?

Winter Whiplash

If you don't like the weather in Minnesota, just wait 15 minutes. -Anonymous

Okay, maybe five days.

Temperatures in Minnesota will swing wildly again this week. Most of Minnesota will be 60 degrees warmer by the weekend than Monday morning. That's the kind of weather whiplash many Minnesotans will welcome.

• -15 degrees -- low at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport early Tuesday

• 5 degrees above zero -- high temperature at MSP Airport Tuesday

• 62 hours -- string of consecutive hours at or below zero at MSP Airport (preliminary total; far short of model and forecast predictions, including mine)

Chi-Beria -- Chicago sets records in latest arctic blast

Arctic math

This week's Arctic superfront likely delivered the coldest temps of the winter to Minnesota. The Minnesota Climatology Working Group has begun to tally the cold hard facts.

Arctic Cold Blast: January 5-7, 2014

The coldest air mass since the "deep freeze" of January 29-30, 2004 caused Governor Mark Dayton to cancel schools on Janaury 6, 2014 and gave many children an extended holiday break.

This was a wind-driven event for the most part and the coldest windchills were on Monday, January 6th. The coldest wind chill temperature in Minnesota on January 6th was -63 degrees at Grand Marais Airport at 9am with a -31 degree F air temperature and a 21mph wind.

The coldest wind chill temperature in the Twin Cities on January 6th was -48 degrees at 5am with an air temperature of -22 degrees F and a 15mph wind.

The coldest air temperature (not the wind chill) in Minnesota for the event was -40 at Babbitt, Brimson and Embarrass. The coldest air temperature at the Twin Cities was -23 on January 6th, the coldest since -24 degrees on January 30, 2004. 

The high temperature of -12 in the Twin Cities on January 6th, was the coldest high temperature since -17 degrees on February 2, 1996. The coldest air temperatures so far for the winter of 2013-14 were on January 2-3 at Embarrass with -46 degrees.

A strong area of low pressure was centered just east of Hudson Bay, a sharp cold front extended from this low and passed through Key West, Florida during the afternoon of Jan 6, and by January 7th the Arctic front was far offshore.

The term: "Polar Vortex" became vogue as a large area of high pressure moved in across the eastern half of the United States behind this front. New Orleans, Louisiana had a low temperature of 24 degrees on January 7, while Jacksonville, Florida had a low of 22 degrees on the same date. Both were one degree shy of their minimum temperature record of the day.

Governor Mark Dayton cancelled K-12 public schools statewide on Monday January 6th due to extreme windchills that were forecasted well in advance. The coldest wind chill temperature in Minnesota on January 6th was -63 degrees at Grand Marais Airport at 9am with a -31 degree F air temperature and a 21mph wind.

The coldest wind chill temperature in the Twin Cities was -48 degrees at 5am with an air temperature of -22 degrees F and a 15mph wind. Many schools also cancelled classes January 7th as well. The wind chill at 4am January 7th was -28 at the Twin Cities International Airport with an air temperature of -14 and a wind of 6mph.

The Twin Cities was at or below zero for 62 straight hours from 11pm January 4 to Noon on January 7th. This is a long way from the top ten below zero streaks and even falls short of the streak of 86 hours at or below zero from January 12-16, 2009.

Milder days ahead

Temperature correction

Weather in Minnesota is a little like the stock market. After a big temperature rally or crash, usually a correction right around the corner.

We crawl out of the deep freeze slowly over the next 48 hours. Two more sub-zero nights in the Twin Cities metro area will put us at 22 for the season by Thursday morning. That's already 10 more than all of last winter

Then the cold air runs out of gas.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is the most aggressive with the coming warm up with several days above freezing and a full week of above zero temps in the metro.

January thaw

The January thaw and dripping icicles will be in full bloom this weekend. Newcomers to Minnesota may wonder, what is it? A new ice cream treat at Dairy Queen?

The Minnesota Climatology Working Group and my always excellent MPR News colleague Mark Seeley have more.

Looking back to 1891 in the Twin Cities, there have been only three years when the thermometer did not reach 32 degrees at least once in January. The years that did not have a high temperature of 32 or greater in January in the Twin Cities are: 1912, 1978 and 1979.

But what about a January thaw? A January thaw is loosely defined as having TWO daytime highs greater than 32 degrees in the month of January. Using this definition, there was not a "January Thaw" in the Twin Cities in 2009. The last time the Twin Cities failed to have a "January Thaw" (Based on two or more days with daytime highs greater than 32 degrees F) was in 1982.

Mark Seeley has more information on past "January Thaw" in his WeatherTalk article below.

Based on two or more days with daytime highs greater than 32 degrees F the historical frequency of January thaws

for various locations in Minnesota shows great reliability in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the northern sections of the state.

Historical frequency of January thaws at various locations since 1948

(here defined as two or more days with daytime temperatures greater than 32 F)

• Twin Cities, 92 percent

• Rochester, 95 percent

• Pipestone, 92 percent

• Fairmont, 93 percent

• St Cloud, 87 percent

• Morris, 80 percent

• Crookston, 62 percent

• Duluth, 60 percent

• International Falls, 50 percent

It is interesting to note that the three consecutive years of 1977, 1978, and 1979 brought no January thaw to most of Minnesota. All three were dominated by abundant January snow cover and are ranked among the top 15 coldest in state history. The last year without a January thaw in most places was 1994.

I like our odds for a January Thaw in the Twin Cities in the next week.

Hang in there!