Tuesday 50s, weekend polar plunge, and a cold Turkey week

Get ready to ride the Minnesota temperature roller coaster.

A series of fronts will sweep through Minnesota the next few days. The first is a warm front, and brings a milder southerly breeze Tuesday. Temps should soar into the 50s in southern Minnesota as sunshine and south winds kick in.

The irony of southerly breezes this time of year is they pump in warmer air, but make us feel cooler with some wind chill. Here's a look at sustained winds Tuesday afternoon. Gusts will be higher, over 25 mph at times.

Two mild days

We'll have to settle for small bouts of "Indian Spring" in the fall of 2013. No big Indian Summer runs of 70 degrees this fall. Our next -- and probably last -- bout of 50s comes Tuesday and Wednesday for southern Minnesota.

I'm going a little higher than guidance Tuesday -- about 52 degrees from the Twin Cities to Mankato and southern Minnesota by 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon. I won't be surprised to see some bank thermometers flashing 55 or higher in southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Mild air lingers Wednesday and we should approach 50 by afternoon, before a cold front brings a November reality check Thursday.

Here's a breakdown of  the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System output from Weatherspark.

'Polar Plunge' weekend

This weekend will remind us where we live, and that it's almost December. The strongest cold front of the season blasts through Minnesota Friday night. This air is coming straight over snow covered lands from Yukon and the Canadian Arctic, and you'll feel it this weekend.

The one saving grace is that it doesn't look like it will spin up a major snow storm as it rolls in. There may be some light snow and flurries Friday as our first real Siberian Express rolls south, but I'm not expecting a major dump. With relatively little snow cover over Minnesota, temps will not be as  "Ice Age" as they would with deep snow.

Check out the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts take on our late November reality check this weekend. Did I shut off the water to those hoses outside yet?

Cold Turkey?

The early longer range Thanksgiving weekend outlook looks cold. Most models suggest a sustained Canadian feed through Thanksgiving weekend, that may intensify into bracing cold waves as we head toward early December.

Here's NOAA's 16 day GFS output, which has favored mostly 20s and 30s for temps Thanksgiving weekend. These numbers will likely moderate as we approach Thanksgiving...and I won't be surprised if we crack 40 degrees. The GFS is usually far too aggressive with cold air outbreaks a week or more out.

I won't play weather terrorist and threaten snow for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. There is some hint at light snow chances late Thanksgiving weekend Saturday or Sunday, but it's too early to pinpoint now. If it's warm enough we could see rain showers instead of snow.

The Meteorological Service of Canada's North American Ensemble Forecasting System favors near to colder than average temps for most of the U.S. and Canada into early December.

With cold air feeding in it may only be a matter of time until a southern low spins up our first major winter storm in the next two to three weeks.

As we say in the weather biz: Stay tuned!