Nordic Outbreak: Major Nor’easter will slow Thanksgiving travel out east

Call it a Nordic Outbreak.

A major late fall storm is taking aim at major East Coast cities this week.

The storm has already claimed lives with ice and snow in the southern states and it's ready to spin up and move east. If you are planning Thanksgiving week travel to the eastern US there will be impacts both by road and air this week.

Meanwhile we get off lucky here in the Upper Midwest. The good weather news is no major storms -- in fact, no storms at all. This week looks seasonably cold, but that's it. Thanksgiving and Black Friday will be brisk this year.

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Bottom line for travelers this week? Expect impacts and delays if you are heading to the eastern third of the US. And yes, The Weather Channel is calling this one "Boreas."

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Image: The Weather Channel

'Bomb Cyclogenesis' Nor'easter?

It's called"Bomb Cyclogenesis."  That's the weather geeky term given to rapidly intensifying east coast lows that spin up and deepen rapidly. East Coast bombs feed off of warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream waters, and cold air diving south from Canada. It's a unique geographic situation. It remains to be seen if this week's Nor'easter will achieve 'bomb' status, but it's going to impact as many as 70 million people in the east.  Here's a definition of what it means to be "the bomb," meteorologically speaking.

Simply put, bomb cyclogenesis is the formation of an "extratropical area of low pressure in which the central barometric pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours." [1] However, it should be noted that this represents the most common case in areas that are north of 60 degrees latitude. Sanders and Gyakum, who coined the term "Bomb Cyclones" set the pressure falls needed to reach bomb status at 19 millibars in 24 hours at 45 degrees and 23 millibars in 24 hours at 55 degrees.

Dallas escapes most of the ice

They're breathing a sigh of relief in Dallas today. What a difference a degree makes. Temps are hovering just above freezing as the storm drops mainly plain old rain and not ice around the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex today. Here's the outlook from the Dallas National Weather Service this morning.

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Image: Dallas-Fort Worth NWS

Impressive rainfall totals

This storm is gulping down moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. The result? A wide band of potential 2 inch to 4 inch-plus rainfall totals from the Deep South along the East Coast. Atlanta, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and Boston will be mostly rain. Some heavy totals will fall, and will likely delay air travel, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday. Here's the rainfall map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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Image: NOAA

Heavy inland snow

It will be mostly rain along the coasts, but on the colder side of the system some heavy snowfall totals are likely in western New York and Pennsylvania. The system will be cold enough for snow there, and bitter winds blowing in from canada over the Great Lakes will enhance snowfall totals in some lake-effect snow belts. The best chance for 6 inches to 12-plus inches is around Pittsburgh and the New York cities of Rochester, Buffalo and Jamestown.

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Image: NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Bottom Line: Expect (potentially major) travel impacts and delays if your are heading east this week!

Minnesota Nice

The Midwest gets off lucky this Thanksgiving week, if you don't mind a little cold.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

 Feeling Arctic Tuesday and Wednesday

Monday's cool breezes will feel nice by later Tuesday. The next arctic front is dropping in with temps n the teens and wind chills near zero by Tuesday afternoon. The good news? Temps moderate some for Thanksgiving and shopping this weekend.

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Image: Weatherspark

 Snow chances next week?

The weather maps are looking potentially 'interesting' for snow in the Upper Midwest next week.

It's too early to tell with any real confidence yet, but the upper air pattern looks favorable for spinning up a potentially potent winter storm by about next Tuesday. NOAA's Global Forecast System has hinted at this for a couple of runs now. Too early to sound any alarm bells, but it may be worth watching this week to see if our first significant winter storms develops in the first days of December.

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GFS hints at potential for snow by next Tuesday somewhere in the Upper Midwest. Image: College of Dupage

As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned!