Growing chance for season’s 1st winter storm Tuesday
The Other Shoe
You knew it wouldn't take long. Or as Scooby-Doo would say, "Ruh-roh!"
It's not a slam dunk yet, but the chances are growing that much of south central Minnesota may see the season's first winter storm Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A November low pressure system is spinning up in the central Plains this week, and tracking toward the Upper Midwest Tuesday. The most likely scenario is a shield of rain changing to snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. If current model trends continue, a blanket of a few inches of heavy wet snow could fall Tuesday night.
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The Twin Cities National Weather Service has pulled the trigger on the season's first winter storm watch for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The watch area runs from Redwood Falls to Mankato is centered smack dab over the Twin Cities area.
It is still too early in my book to try and pinpoint snow totals 48 hours out. Any changes in storm track or temperature profile could reduce snowfall totals dramatically over short distances.
Still, the early read is that several inches of wet snow are possible Tuesday night. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale model is most aggressive so far, and lays out a narrow band of 3 inches to 6-plus inches right through the Twin Cities. A shift in the storm track of 50 miles could literally mean the difference between plowable snow, and flurries.
Here's the Twin Cities NWS take on the system so far.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY...AIDED BY MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SONIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY EVENING AND ALLOW RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW TEMPERATURES FALL TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CLEARWATER AND MORA...EXCEPT FOR EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...AND FREEBORN COUNTIES.
740 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* SNOW ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* TIMING: RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS: THE FIRST HEAVY SNOW OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES. IN ADDITION...IT IS LIKELY TO BE A WET SNOW AND ANY TREES WITH LEAVES LEFT ON THEM MAY BE STRESSED...LEADING TO BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
Bottom Line from the MPR Weather Lab: Snow is possible, even likely Tuesday PM and night. It's too early to pinpoint track and totals just yet.
Monday's model runs will hopefully shed more light on the snow potential Tuesday.
Stay tuned.