Bundle up; full dose of cold air for Saturday

As Paul Huttner noted in a recent "Updraft" blog post, predicting snow amounts beyond 24 hours is a tad risky. I was questioned today about "what happened to our snow?"

I'm reminded of the instance a few years ago at the checkout line, where customers bantered about the forecast and the expected snowfall.  It was of interest that a small sample of  people had heard an array of snowfall predictions for the impending snow.

It comes with the business. As Paul often says, when snow is in the forecast, "stay tuned."

I had a coating of snow on the deck, with very little accumulation on the grassy areas.

We can likely get away with predicting a dusting or a coating when snow showers or flurries are in the forecast. Most flurries leave only a skiff of snow. But commuters will validate that a coating of snow on the way to and from work really impacts the travel time.

We've actually come a long way in making snowfall predictions.  I'm no longer chided with  the comment, "I shoveled three inches of flurries this morning."

Rochester accumulated about an inch of snow last evening.

Cold air settled into the region in the wake of the light snow. It got down to 5 below zero at the Grand Forks, N.D. National Weather Service office this morning.

These cold temperatures are resulting in a thickening of the ice on lakes, ponds and streams in northern Minnesota.  Ice will be forming on lakes in central and southern Minnesota this weekend.  This is a good time to share the information from the Department of Natural Resources on being smart when it comes to venturing out on frozen water.

Another reinforcing shot of cold air is moving through northern Minnesota this afternoon.  Flurries are flying in northeast Minnesota.

Morning temperatures are expected to be below zero in northern Minnesota.  Dress for the cold if you are venturing outdoors for any duration of time on Saturday, including regional football games.

Precipitation has come mainly in the form of spits and spurts the past month. Parts of the state are looking parched. It's very similar to last fall.

The latest report published in the U.S. Drought Monitor reveals where the moisture deficit remains the greatest.

A closer look at the dry conditions as they stand this week in Minnesota.

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Drought may be the story through the winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says.

Looking out at the long range model data, there appears to be no major precipitation event in the next week -- plenty of chilly air, but not much in the way of accumulating snowfall.

The exciting weather this weekend will be found in the southwest part of the nation as a closed low rotates over the region. This was the forecast from the North American model of the jet stream for Saturday morning. Note the strong jet core (highest winds) plunging the cold air over the Great Lakes and the closed low over southern California.

It would appear you'll be able to use your garage as an ice box this Thanksgiving as chilly temperatures continue to hold over Minnesota.  Unlike last Thanksgiving, on Nov. 22, when the mercury climbed to 60 degrees for a high temperature in Minneapolis.

In case you missed it, NOAA released its winter outlook on Thursday.  Here is a snapshot of the overall temperature forecast for December through February.

Not very telling, but a safe bet.  I like to take the forecast a couple days at a time.