Overcast skies stifle movement on the thermometer; Friday should be nice

The drab, overcast weather the past couple of days certainly validates our transitioning of seasons. The lowering sun angle, decreasing daylight and conflicting air masses really dims the prospects of bright sunshine.

Not breaking news, but we need to fess-up to the fact that winter is not far off.

On Wednesday, the thermometer didn’t move much.  The St. Cloud Regional Airport reparted a low of 31 degrees and a high of only 35.

Overnight, temperatures held pretty much in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  Some breaks in the clouds, even clear skies, were reported in far western Minnesota.

The Rapid Refresh Model painted this picture of the temperatures, pressure and wind at the surface at 4 a.m. (Image: NOAA/College of DuPage).

This morning’s 5:30 a.m. infrared satellite image depicted the cloud-free region as a different shade of grey over the Dakotas. The low clouds we’ve been experiencing are holding pretty solid over much of the state.

(Image: Unisys)

A few rays of sunshine today will be a welcome sight for many of us.  Temperatures will stay remain below normal, but a moderation is on tap for Friday.

High temperatures expected on Friday. (Image: National Weather Service)

Another cool front comes through with a wind shift on Saturday. Temperatures will not be as mild.

National weather map of temperatures, wind and pressure from the Global Forecast System model. (Image: Twisterdata.com)

If you are thinking of raking the leaves on Saturday there will be a bit of a breeze.

Wind forecast in knots for 1 p.m. Saturday. (Source: National Weather Service)

Earlier, the 90 day outlook from the National Weather Service was posted on the Updraft blog. Well, the NWS also posted, on Oct. 17,  an outlook for the meteorological winter.  I present it here with low confidence.  NOAA’s winter forecast, on a grander scale will be released in November.

Temperature outlook for December through February. EC translate to equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

The precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service for December through February, also has our region in equal chances of above or below normal liquid precipitation.

December through February outlook for precipitation.

By the way, for amusement I picked up my copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac this week.

We are still looking for a weather maker to arrive early next week.  Here’s the latest forecast of precipitation from the Global Forecast System model for Monday night.

GFS output of precipitation shows a maximum near the Twin Cities overnight on Monday. (Image: NOAA/College of DuPage)

The rain/snow line has shifted a little further to the north than what Paul showed in the earlier blog. Rain changing to snow is more likely from Alexandria to Hibbing.  Stay tuned.