Last 90s of 2013? Fall like weekend ahead, up to 30 degrees cooler by Sunday

Temperature Tumble

The weather maps finally seem to realize it’s September.

Monday’s sauna like heat is fading, and a pleasantly cooler weather pattern this week  transitions to a downright “fall like” feel by the weekend.

Wait one second while I step outside to soak in what could be the last 90-degree day this year. Ahhhhh. Looking at the maps I’d say there is a 50 percent chance that Monday was the last 90-degree day of 2013.

The weather maps are finally showing (temporary) signs of a more fall like pattern. I still see more summer like days ahead in the next few weeks. We’re not done with 80s just yet.

The bigger picture is growing drought and parched soils and crops in southern Minnesota. central and northern Minnesota picked up valuable multi-inch rainfall totals in the past 36 hours. We need rain badly in the south.

Will this be another year of counting the days and praying for rain before the soil freezes up in December? I hope not.

57 degrees with drizzle at Silver Bay at 5 p.m. Monday afternoon

97 degrees in Fairmont, St. James and Albert Lea Monday afternoon

94 degrees – high at MSP Airport Monday (at 4:53pm)

95 degrees at Eden Prairie and South St. Paul

Swimmers enjoying the 90s at Deephaven Beach on Sept. 9. Image: Paul Huttner MPR News

Instant Sauna: Monday’s heat came on fast

Talk about turning up the heat.

Temps rose quickly Monday afternoon once the sun came out. Eden Prairie’s temp soared from a relatively cool 77 to a steamy 94 degrees in just a few hours. Add in the dew point near 70, and you get a heat index of 100 degrees by 4 p.m., a 21-degree jump in five hours.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Anatomy of a warm front: Tale of two forecasts

Talk about dramatically different weather forecast Monday. As the warm front pushed north Monday afternoon southern Minnesota broke out into sunshine and temps soared into the 90s in the south. North of the front, central and northern Minnesota sits under clouds, showers and temps in the low 60s — a 30+ degree temp contrast in just a few hours drive.

Image: NOAA Mesonet

This map below is complicated but tell the weather story perfectly. I’ve overlaid winds and temps on the GOES 1km visible image from Monday afternoon.

Image: NOAA via College of Dupage

Monday’s forecast had “high bust potential.” If the warm front and associated cloud deck doesn’t move north, the Twin Cities metro area sits in the 70s instead of 90s. Whew.

Next 72 hours: Cool front brings relief

A cool front brings a milder air mass in the next 72 hours. Temps should make the low 80s through Wednesday, and 70s Thursday. Here’s the pleasantly milder Euro model output from Weatherspark.

Image: Norwegian met Institute via Weatherspark

Fall-like weekend ahead?

I often tell those who ask that our first real fall like shot of air seems to roll in around Sept. 15, give or take. This year looks true to form. The usually more reliable European Model (ECMWF) suggest clouds, showers and highs in the 50s by Sunday. That may be a bit extreme., but you’ll be reaching for the sweatshirts…maybe even the fleece this weekend in much of Minnesota.

Image: Norwegian Met Institute via Weatherspark

No worries though warm weather fans. Both the Global Forecast System and Euro suggest temperatures rebound into the lower 80s next week.

Our admittedly finicky but extended Summer of 2013 still shows signs of life into late September.