Fall Weekend: Split: Saturday showers; Frost far north metro Monday morning?

Taking what we can get

We can’t afford to be too picky in the rain department these days. Yes, our next (welcome?) shower chance rolls in on a weekend. But with a 4″ rainfall deficit and severe drought expanding in the Twin Cities metro area since July 1, can we afford to complain? Most of the showers will move in late Saturday and over night.

So far, Sunday looks like the sunnier day of the weekend.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Here’s the breakdown on weekend rainfall timing. The best chance of a minor soaking shower is between 3 p.m. Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday.

(Image: Weatherspark)

The incoming system may have enough moisture to give us all a much needed free lawn watering. Model precipitation totals range between about .30″ on the low side to as much as .80″ on the probably too optimistic side. If you get half an inch by Sunday morning you’ll be one of the lucky ones.

(Image: NOAA data via Iowa State University)

Frost close by Monday morning?

Sunday’s high pressure cell building overhead looks to be the coolest so far this season. There could be enough cold air at sunrise Monday morning to generate frost just north of the metro area.

NOAA GFS data via IPS Meteostar

I think the inner (494/694 loop) metro will escape any chance of frost. But it’s getting to be that time of year! Here are the average first frost dates from the Minnesota Climate Working Group. The “median” first 32-degree day at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is Oct. 7.

Image: MN Climate Working Group

First Fall color??

A few splashes of color are starting to pop in central Minnesota. Here’s this week’s fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Image: MN DNR

Summer rerun next week

Next week looks warmer. Temperatures should respond back into the upper 70s, and a high of 80 is a good possibility by the middle of next week.

(Image: NOAA Global Forecast System data via WeatherSpark)