Climate Cast: The Next “Atlantis?” Marshall Islands fight to stay above rising Pacific sea level

July 12, 2013 12:20 PM

Every Thursday MPR meteorologist Paul Huttner joins Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit for "Climate Cast" on MPR News Stations to talk about the latest research on our changing climate and the consequences that we're seeing here in Minnesota and worldwide.

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These days it seems like we are witnessing climate changes unfold right before our very eyes.

It's not our imagination.

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The nature of our seasons is changing. Spring blooms come earlier. Summer is more humid with a documented increase in extreme localized flash flood events...and more frequent droughts. Fall lingers longer. Lakes freeze up later. Winters are trending shorter and noticeably, measurably milder. New plants are able to thrive in Minnesota's milder climate.

We're all living witnesses to rapid climate changes in our lifetime. This is no longer your grandparents "Minnesota" or Planet Earth.

In 2013 at MPR we're devoting more coverage to the science behind and the growing effects of our changing climate in Minnesota and around the globe.

You can hear me discuss the week's top climate stories, and get perspective from climate experts in our new "Climate Cast" every Thursday morning at 9:50am with Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit.

Climate Cast for July 11, 2013

MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner expands with Kerri Miller on The Daily Circuit.

Marshall Islands: On the frontlines of climate change

To some, climate change can be an abstract concept.

To 68,000 residents of the tiny Marshall Islands in the South Pacific, climate changes threaten their very existence. Rising sea levels threaten to inundate the 34 islands...most of which lie only 1-2 feet above sea level. The highest part of the Marshall Islands is barely 6 feet above the massive Pacific Ocean. When you live only a foot or two above sea level...a 1 foot rise in the ocean is a major problem.

Massive "king tides" sweep inland, threaten homes and contaminate scarce freshwater supplies as they flood parts of the islands. Altered weather patterns bring drought...and cut off critical rainfall needed for crops and drinking water.

CC Marhsall Island image Stef Lins — Near to danger: houses on the Marshall Islands capital, Majuro atoll, are highly vulnerable to tidal surges. Credit: Stefan Lins via Climate Central

The Next Atlantis?

World sea levels are rising in 2 ways. So called "thermal expansion" raises sea levels as warmer ocean water expands. The IPCC projects a sea level rise of between 7" and 23" by 2100. Many climate experts think that scenario is much too conservative. The upper end of that projection...a 2 foot rise by 2100 would submerge much of the Marshall Islands, rendering them basically uninhabitable. The next Atlantis.

Climate New Network's Paul Brown has more via a story on Climate Central.

High tides have surged over sea walls defending the capital of the Marshall Islands, adding to the crisis situation in this tiny Pacific nation, where a state of emergency was declared only last month because of a devastating drought in the scattered northern atolls.
In the last week, what the islanders call “king tides” have repeatedly flooded parts of the capital, Majuro, and its airport, in one of the countries most vulnerable to sea level rise.
With a population of 68,000 spread across 34 coral atolls, none of which is more than two meters (6.6 feet) above sea level, the country has been at the forefront of appeals for action on climate change.
Aid from the U.S. and other countries is now coming to the scattered communities that inhabit the palm-covered atolls, living on a few crops, seafood and a breed of small pig descended from animals that arrived on the islands centuries ago from the ships of European explorers and missionaries.

The relatively small sea level rise of about 8" observed so far in the past century is enough to cause big issues for places like the Marshall Islands. Add in glacial meltwater from the massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets... a potentially huge contributor to future sea level rise...with the potential for raising global sea level from 3 to 20 feet if a massive melt off occurs. Even a 3 foot rise in global sea level would inundate major portions of some of the world's most populated cities. Miami, New York, San Francisco? All at risk from even small rises in sea level.

Here's an interesting take on the threat to U.S. cities from Rolling Stone.

Depending on geology, vulnerability, ocean currents and political leadership, some regions will be hit harder than others. Researchers recently discovered that the Atlantic coast between North Carolina and Massachusetts is a particular hot spot, with the sea rising three to four times faster than the global average.

CC NYC Sandy floating cars — Car float in a flooded tunnel after Hurricane Sandy in New York. Image: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Minnesota: Preparing our forests for future climate changes?

Minnesota's warming climate is already causing changes in our forests. But could the BWCA really look like a prairie or oak savannah in 100 years?

My MPR colleague Stephanie Hemphill has an excellent piece on an experimental planting with new species of trees in anticipation of future climate changes.

As growing seasons become longer and winters are warmer, researchers are seeing more southerly tree species creeping northward into the boreal forest. They're worried about what climate change could mean for the existing ecosystem, and they are predicting big changes that could make the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness more like southern Minnesota or Iowa by the end of the century.
Planting such trees slightly outside of their current range may help ensure that the forest can continue to provide the like clean water, wildlife habitat, wood products and recreational opportunities that Minnesotans have come to depend on, said Mark White, a forest ecologist for the Nature Conservancy, an environmental group that is spearheading the experiment.