That 70s show: May is warming up at last

Sunshine and light winds should add up to a delightful May day today, with a repeat in store for Tuesday. Temperatures will steadily climb through the 60s this afternoon. Some locations will top out in the lower 70s.

Notice in the image below from the NAM, how the model deals with the cool pool of soil from the recent record snow in southeast Minnesota. It wants to hold the highs in the 50s due to a period of morning fog/clouds and damp soil near Rochester. This is likely overdone, but gives you an idea of the resolution currently in the computer forecasts.


NAM surface forecast of temperatures and wind valid at 4 p,m. CDT today.

Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

Rainfall on Saturday helped with the relatively dry period that’s been experienced this spring in parts of northwest Minnesota.


Abundant moisture had drenched parts of the Midwest the first four days of May. Note the heavy rainfall in Kentucky, which put a damper on the fun at the Kentucky Derby in Louisville.


As a result of the excessive precipitation, the river levels are high, particularly with water coming down the Mississippi River south of Red Wing.

With frost out of the soil in northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota much of the snowmelt is finding its way into the ground, lakes and streams.

There is good news with regard to fire danger as the spring green up is hastened this week. Here is the fire danger status that was posted by the Minnesota DNR for Sunday.


Another mild day is on tap for Tuesday, but the chances for thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday night as a frontal boundary sets up over northern Iowa.

The GFS model paints this precipitation potential for late Tuesday night.


GFS model rainfall ending at 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday morning.

Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

Highs in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.


Keep a watch for emerging tulips! It’s about time.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves for the forecast for the weekend. We’ll take a look at that in this afternoon’s Updraft blog.

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