Winter storm begins to crank up; track the impact in the upper Midwest

The National Weather Service has painted a large swath of the landscape from Wyoming to Wisconsin in winter storm watches and warnings. Explore the specifics of your location here.

Little has changed in the expectation for the heaviest snow accumulation to occur late tonight through Sunday from the eastern Dakotas to northeast Minnesota, where amounts may exceed 10 inches.

Probability of snow of 8 inches or more from 6 a.m. CST Sunday to 6 a.m. CST Monday.

NOAA's meteorologists suggest this model track as a consensus forecast, or a blend of the output from a variety of computer models.

The time stamps are in GMT. 00Z Monday translates to 6 p.m. CST Sunday.

Light snow is possible today, but the heaviest snowfall is expected after midnight tonight through Sunday evening.

The GFS model dumps a generous amount of liquid precipitation in close proximity to the Twin Cities on Sunday morning.

Six-hourly precipitation ending at noon CST Sunday. Yellow shaded area is more than a half inch of liquid. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

The temperature profile is critical to the precipitation type in the metro region of the Twin Cities. Milder air is forecast to nose into southeast Minnesota at the low levels on Sunday.

While surface temperatures may be close to 35 degrees with a wintry mix in Farmington, it could be 32 in Rogers with heavy snow falling.

Paul Huttner's forecast of the potential for a considerable gradient on the snow accumulation is on track. For now, the best forecast in east central Minnesota is for a wintry mix, with the heaviest snowfall in the northwest metro.

NWS forecast of Sunday's maximum temperatures.

You can track the precipitation on the Weatherunderground regional radar.

Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter storm.

Craig Edwards