Rain & severe risk east later today; “Sandy” stalks Jamaica, growing threat to New England?

1" to 2"+ rainfall totals in NW metro during localized Tuesday AM deluge

Wave #2 next low pressure wave moves in with showers Wednesday

.50" to .80" Models predicting decent rain totals through Thursday

Slight risk for a few severe storms east of the metro Wednesday PM

Hurricane Sandy looking like a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday

New York/New England hurricane threat? European model paints scary scenraio next week, other models moving closer to Euro solution

Source: WxUnderground GFS model ensembles

The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it.

- Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross on growing New York & New England threat from Hurricane Sandy

Less scary model solutions steer "Sandy" out to sea away from land

London Fog:

A rare saturated lower atmosphere over Minnesota & Wisconsin means perfect conditions for thick fog. With a stalled front in the area and temps near the dew point, humidity will reach 100% (saturation) in many areas into early Wednesday.

Expect thick fog with widespread visibilities under 1/4 mile...to near zero in some places.

A dense for advisory is in effect until 10am Wednesday.

Was that Sherlock Holmes I saw wandering by in a trench coat?

Beneficial soaking Tuesday AM:

Much of the western & northern meotr saw the first good soaking rain in months Tuesday morning. Here are some totals form the Twin Cities NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

958 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WELCOME RAIN FELL WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE LISTED BELOW. THESE REPORTS ARE 24 HOUR TOTALS ENDING AROUND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THANK YOU TO OUR VOLUNTEER PRECIPITATION OBSERVERS FOR THESE REPORTS.

...MINNESOTA...

CHAMPLIN 1.7 NNW 2.11

CHAMPLIN 1.3 WSW 1.75

MAPLE GROVE 1.0 NNE 1.69

MAPLE GROVE 3.0 WSW 1.68

HAMEL 1 NW 1.40

ANDOVER 0.2 W 1.34

LITTLE FALLS 1.14

LONG LAKE 0.2 WSW 1.07

...WISCONSIN...

JIM FALLS 1.43

ELK MOUND 1.06

Next wave Wednesday:

It's great to be writing and broadcasting about some real weather this week. New words like "rain" "thunder" and "fog" are creeping back into use.

The next wave of low pressure rides along the frontal zone Wednesday.

Scattered showers will become more numerous as the day wears on. The bulk of the rain will come during the PM & evening hours Wednesday...and then another wave will ride in Thursday with the cold front.

Rianfall totals still look pretty decent, with most models cranking out .50" to .80" for the metro by later Thursday. The heaviest waves of rain may fall east into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin where 1" to 2" may fall in a swath from Rochester to Eau Claire.

Source: NOAA/HPC

Severe risk east?

If enough sun breaks out in the relatively warm and humid air mass ahead of the front Wednesday, a few strong to borderline severe storms may erupt.

The storm prediction center highlights the possibility with a rare late October "slight risk" zone.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Likely "Hurricane" Sandy takes aim at Jamaica:

Late October hurricanes like to brew in the Caribbean and head north.

Sandy is no exception, and takes aim at Jamaica Wednesday. Sandy will likely be a Category 1 hurricane with 80mph winds as she slams into Jamaica Wednesday.

Source: NOAA/NHC

The "Billion Dollar" question: Where will Sandy go next?

Sandy's eventual path takes us into "speculative" weather territory.

Nobody can tell you for sure if Sandy is a potential threat to New England yet, but some of the model solutions look scary for New England, Long Island and possibly New York City.

SFWMD

Tuesday European model runs take Sandy on a path that could pose a direct hit to New England next Tuesday from a ferocious super "hybrid" hurricane. You may recall the European model (ECMWF) did the best job with the shifting track of hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast this summer.

Source: College of DuPage Weather Lab

These systems can morph into hybrid tropical/mid-latitude monsters as hurricanes move north and absorb energy from colder northern cyclones. This is how the so called "Perfect Storm" deepened into one of the most ferocious systems ever observed in the North Atlantic in late October 1991.

Model runs in the next 72 hours will be critical in nailing down Sandy's eventual path and intensity.

There are many solutions that take Sandy out to sea and away from the east coast. But it's too early to write off a direct hit that could cause massive storm surge, flooding rains and wind damage.

If Sandy comes ashore in New England, she has the potential to be our next "billion dollar weather disaster" in the USA.

Stay tuned...

PH