September “reality check”; 40 degrees cooler; 1st frost likely in coming week

97 F in New Ulm Tuesday at 4pm

57F in New Ulm Wednesday at 4pm

-40 degrees temps Wednesday vs. Tuesday

Rare rainy day for southern Minnesota Wednesday

Frost likey as far south as the northern metro suburbs Friday morning?

Rare mid-September 90s - How rare was 95 in the Twin Cities on September 11th? - Details below

September "temperature shock:" Now that's a cold front!

Welcome back to September reality in Minnesota.

Minnesotans are feeling the shock of temps as much as 40 degrees cooler compared to Tuesday's (final?) summer heat blast.

It was 97 under a sunny sky in Mankato Tuesday at 4pm. 24 hours later rain (yes RAIN) is falling....and it's 55 degrees, a 42 degree temp crash in 24 hours.

AC to furnace anyone?

Latest 95 degree metro temp in 73 years!

Just how rare was 95 degrees in the metro on September 11th?

There have only been 7 other times the temperature has reached of exceeded 95 degrees this late in the season.

The steamy details from the Twin Cities NWS:

95 degree high in the Twin Cities on 9/11 - A historical perspective

How hot has it been so far this year? Here are some interesting statistics from the Minnesota State Climatology Office regarding the abnormally warm weather in the Twin Cities:

Last time it was 95 degrees or warmer on or after September 11th was in 1939...

Yesterday marked only the 8th time (and 5th year) in the 139-year Twin Cities record where the max temp reached or exceeded 95 degrees F on, or after, 9/11. It was the first time this has happened since 1939.

date max temp

09/11/1895 96

09/17/1895 96

09/11/1931 96

09/22/1936 95

09/13/1939 95

09/14/1939 98

09/15/1939 98

09/11/2012 95

Our 31 days of 90+ degree heat is also the 7th highest number of 90 degree days since 1895....and the most in 24 years since the 44 day record set in 1988.

There have been 31 days this year which reached or exceeded 90 degrees...

2012 was a warm summer in the Twin Cities, with the warmth extending into September. The normal number of days in a year to reach at least 90 degrees is 13. As of September 11 there have been 31 days with a maximum temperature of 90 degrees or higher in the Twin Cities. This is enough to be in a three-way tie for the seventh most number of 90 degree high temperatures. The record number of 90 degree days in a year for the Twin Cities was 44 during the memorable summer of 1988. The 30 days of 90 degrees or above is the most in the Twin Cities since 1988.

rank year days of 90 or above

------------------------------

1. 1988 44

2. 1936 36

3. 1934 34

1937 34

5. 1949 33

6. 1933 32

7. 1955 31

1976 31

2012 31

9. 1894 30

1931 30

Frosty Friday?

The sun will shine up north and return to southern Minnesota Thursday, but temps will hover in the 60s in most areas.

With a clear sky and light winds, temps will plunge Thursday night.

By Friday morning many locations in Minnesota will fall into the 30s, and the season's first frost is likely for most of northern and central Minnesota...as far south as the far northern metro suburbs.

Most of the metro will hold in the 40s Friday morning and escape frost. Yes, the "super-tunias" are safe for another few days at least.

Milder weekend:

This weekend looks like a Minnesota September classic. High pressure will drift lazily overhead, and cool mornings will give way to sunny milder afternoons.

Highs should reach the 70s in southern Minnesota...with (upper?) 60s up north.

Stronger cold shot next week: First flurries in MN?

The medium range forecast models are still advertising a second, stronger shot of cold air direct from Canada next week. This one brings a real threat of frost even closer to the metro.

Source: NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Low pressure spins through Minnesota Monday and may bring some more rain. As the system swings east Monday night, just enough cold air may slide down the back side of the system to produce a few....snowflakes in central & northeast Minnesota.

There...I typed the "S" word for the first time this fall.

Whew....that was tough.

PH