Crazy Hot: 100 today? Summer “Halftime”; Lake Superior water in the 70s

100F today at several southern Minnesota (including metro) locations

Day 3 of 100 degree heat at MSP this summer?

(Most since 1988 when we endured 4)

"Halftime" for summer today: 46 days since June 1st; 46 days until September 1st

+7.8 degrees vs. average so far in July at MSP Airport

20 days at or above 90 this summer so far (through Sunday)

5 years since we've seen more 90 degree days (27 days in 2007)

83 to 86 degrees - Metro lake water temps running a good +5 degrees vs. average!

72.6 degrees - water temps on Lake Superior east of Duluth

Relief this week: 80s return by mid week

"Heat Surge" returns next weekend...upper 90s again, with thunder?

Heat wave breaks the week of July 23rd?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Sweaty Halftime:

Welcome to the halfway point of the sweaty summer of 2012.

We'll mark halftime with another run at 100 degrees today in southern Minnesota.

If we make it to 100 today in the metro, it will be the 3rd day so far this summer...the most since the brutal summer of 1988. We endured 4 days of 100 degree heat that summer, and 44 days when the mercury topped out at or above 90 degrees. (A record for MSP)

If you look at where we are so far this summer you can see we're starting to creep into "top 5" territory by several measures of consecutive days of heat. Detalis from the Twin Cities NWS below.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Overall Minnesota is running a good 7 to 9 degrees above average so far in July.

Source: Twin Cities NWS/IL Water Survey

No clouds to save us today?

Sunday featured a significant shield of cirrus clouds overhead...just enough to dim the afternoon sun and keep highs around 90 degrees instead of the predicted temp of 95.

It doesn't look like we'll be so lucky today. The "thermal ridge" that produced 100 degree heat from Denver to Bismarck Sunday (and 109 at Pierre, SD) will drift right over southern Minnesota today.

It will take a minor meteorological miracle to keep your car thermometer from flashing 100 degrees in much of southern Minnesota today.

Forecast conditions for the metro and southern MN by around 4pm today include:

Bright sun

Temps near 100F

Dew point 65F

Heat Index 103F to 105F

Wind SW 10-22 mph

I remember the summer of 1988. It was like somebody turned on a giant hair dryer and let it blow over Minnesota. That's the kind of "blast furnace heat" we'll feel today.

Take it easy out there.

Any relief in sight?

In a word, yes.

A "cool" front (when did cold fronts become "cool" fronts anyway?) will slide through Minnesota from north to south tomorrow.

The front may trigger a few scattered T-Storms, and a cooler northeast breeze will ease in temps closer to 90 by tomorrow afternoon, and dew points should gradually fall to near 60 degrees by late tomorrow night.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

The NAM model is doing a pretty good job with gauging the heat waves this month. The GFS (Good For Speculation?) has been almost useless this summer. What's up with that NCEP? The Euro model continues to perform best days 4-10.

Source: Iowa State University

Look for more comfy 80 by mid-week!

Heat surge again (with thunder) next weekend?

After a few cooler days this week, it looks like the heat will return again next weekend. Another warm front could push temps into the upper 90s again Saturday & Sunday. This time, the heat may come with a dose of thunder.

Stay tuned on that.

Bathwater: Lake temps running +5 degrees vs. average this summer

Usually the lakes are a good option for cooling off in a Minnesota summer.

This year? Not so much.

Lake Harriet Sailing Webcam

My weather spies tell me metro lake temps are running between 83 and 86 degrees right now on lakes like Minnetonka & Calhoun.

The average for this time of year ia bout 78 degrees, with a peak around 80 degrees in late July.

With more heat on the way and peak water temps still ahead, it looks like we may see some lakes in the metro and southern Minnesota top out close to 90 degrees this summer! Wow.

Swimming in Superior?

A warm bubble of water is now building up near Duluth in Lake Superior. Lake water temps are running in the low 70s now near Duluth and several miles to the east. Temps are running in the 60s in The Apostle Islands.

Source: http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/superior/s1.html

70 degrees is usually considered "safe swimming" when it comes to water temps.

It's not out of the question we'll see some 80 degree water temps in Lake Superior in late July or early August this summer!

Weekend auroras dazzle:

Finally, this was as advertised a great weekend to see some auroras in parts of Minnesota. Northern Lights were visible from Colorado to Illinois and north to Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend.

This amazing image of "green curtains and rays" was captured by Sallie Carlson in Lutsen.

Source: Sallie Carlson & spaceweather.com

Check out the full aurora gallery at spaceweather.com.

Stay cool!

PH