“June-Soon” moves in; Heavy rainfall “Bull’s Eye” over MN next 5 days?

52 msp ql.PNG

Source: Twin Cities NWS (Click to embiggen)

4.84″ GFS model rainfall total for MSP Airport through next Tuesday

4.6″ ECMWF (European) model rainfall output

Scattered showers today moving east

Radar: Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Heavy rains possible Thursday & Saturday?

Severe risk Thursday includes MSP area

Watch 131 years of global warming in 26 seconds

Minnesota: 3rd fastest warming state in the nation

.62F degrees per decade pace of warming in Minnesota

Colorado’s “High Park Fire” smoke plume now overhead in Minnesota

52 wxs.png

Source: Twin Cities NWS


Here we go again.

Sunday’s rain ended a dry stretch of 12 days from May 29 through June 9th. (.03″)

Now the faucet is turning on again, and it looks like it may get cranked up to “high” in the next 72 hours.

Here’s a look at the evolving wet weather pattern over the next 5-6 days.

The System: A slow moving upper level low pressure system sending waves of energy into Minnesota through the weekend into early next week.

Moisture: Dew points rising into the 60s and even 70s by Father’s Day weekend.

Rainfall: Multi inch rainfall possible, with the heaviest rainfall likely Thursday and again Saturday night into Father’s Day, Monday & Tuesday.

Take a look at some of the model guidance below. Anywhere from 3″ to 6″ rainfall totals are possible according to various models by next Tuesday.

52 waves.PNG

Source: Iowa State University

52 5 day.gif

Source: NOAA/HPC

52 gfs qpf.PNG

Possible Effects: Hit or miss T-Storms with heavy tropical rainfall. Possible severe risk Thursday & Saturday-Tuesday? Another wave of rising river levels by early next week?

52 risk thu.PNG

Source: NOAA/SPC

Colorado’s “High Park Fire” sending smoke our way:

I posted extensively on this Tuesday, and the latest NOAA satellite shots indicate the smoke plume is riding over Minnesota and much of the Midwest now.

52 fire smoke plume.PNG


Here’s a way to track the smoke plume from NOAA’s NESDIS Fire Detection Program.

131 years of global warming in 26 seconds?

For those of you in a hurry who don’t have 131 years to watch global warming happen, here’s the quick version from Climate Central.

Source: Climate Central

Minnesota: We’re #3! 3rd “fastest warming” state in the nation

Here’s an eye opening study from Climate Central.

52 mn warming.PNG

52 warming map.PNG

Source: Climate Central

Stay dry!


  • Lars

    Thanks for the forecast Paul.

    Whatever happened to that 25 day forecast? I recall some generalities.

    What would Climate Central’s graphic look like for another 131 years back in time?

  • Alan

    NO Mention of the FACT, that the Summer of 09′ was the Coldest on record. The State of MN, has yet to even come close to the Great Depression Temps…of the 30’s…

    The Man-Made Global Warming Myth is a serious Multi-trillion dollar game to control the US energy markets and to weaken the USA…

    Meanwhile CHINA is Buying up and Burning up OUR OIL and Building RECORD COAL SIZE plants…

    Your Propaganda of spreading this Man-Made Myth is helping to Destroy America. GOD controls the weather, and he is using SEVERE weather to Punish America.

    Once you start Forecasting weather based upon this FACT, your weather Forcasting skills will improve…

  • Chris

    I’m with ya on man-made global warming being a myth or at least seriously questionable.

    But please Alan, leave God at your church. This is not the place. We all know severe weather and other natural disasters never happend before global warming and they clearly only happen to America.

    And almost exclusively disasters are caused by humans lack of ability and will to build to withstand the issue. In-other-words did the hurricane hurt anyone or the poor construction in low areas of areas known to have hurricanes cause the disaster. I fully blame man for choice of construction and location.

    Paul doesn’t necessarily spread propaganda but is in the camp of global warming. Not sure his take though on the cause. While I don’t agee man is to blame fully I certainly appreciate his producing the blog AND including said data. If you have an open mind you should be willing to consider the otherside. Fact is you and I might be wrong.

    And clearly you don’t understand the difference between weather forecasting on a daily basis vs. climate change. Paul does the weather, not the climate. If you think God controls the weather and is punishing America then He must also be controling Paul’s forecast. So don’t blame Paul.