Storm Watch: T-Storm/Flash Flood Watches include metro
1204 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A
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* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BENTON...KANDIYOHI...
MCLEOD...MEEKER...MORRISON...RENVILLE...SHERBURNE...SIBLEY...
STEARNS...TODD AND WRIGHT. IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ANOKA...
CARVER...CHISAGO...DAKOTA...HENNEPIN...ISANTI...KANABEC...
MILLE LACS...RAMSEY...SCOTT AND WASHINGTON. IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...SWIFT AND YELLOW
MEDICINE.
* UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
* VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED 3
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.
* FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS...INCLUDING
HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES...AS WELL AS ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
Update 10:05pm
SPC has issued Severe Thunserstorms Watch #693 valid until 6am. This includes St. Cloud, Redwood Falls, Mankato and the Twin Cities metro area.
Expect storms in the greater Twin Cities metro generally anytime after midnight (NW metro) spreading east into most of the metro anytime after 1am.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MANKATO
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 689...WW 690...WW
691...WW 692...
DISCUSSION...A LARGE HP SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY MORPHED INTO A
CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN SD. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE GYRE MERGES WITH DECAYING BOW OVER E-CNTRL SD. EXPECT MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT...FORCED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO NOCTURNAL LLJ. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
Update 7:45pm:
Tornado Watch #691 for weatern MN until 3am includes Alexandria, Fergus Falls and Morris.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 687...WW 688...WW
689...WW 690...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A COUPLE
OF W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. 00Z ABR SOUNDING IS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING MLCAPE OF AROUND 3500 J/KG...45 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A LOW LCL HEIGHT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF AROUND 400
M2/S2. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate
++++
We're on storm watch in the weather lab tonight.
The next low pressure wave is heading east into Minnesota.
(Do we have a weather "target" on our backs or something?)
A warm front is oozing north, and another warm moist unstable air mass is working in.
Minnesota remains on the northern edge of the summer heat wave.
Expect scattered showers & T-Storms to increase through tonight, and slowly rumble east. Severe weather is most likely in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota tonight, with the threat for heavy rains for much of the area.
SPC has issued mesoscale discussions for the Dakotas, and watches may be issued shortly.
Storms will be bucking some drier air over eastern Minnesota where dew points have held in the 50s most of Tuesday, so eastward progress toward the metro may be slow tonight. Storm chances will increase after midnight and especially after 3am through 9am for the metro, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
You can track the storms eastward progress tonight below.
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest warnings from Twin Cities NWS
-Storm reports from Twin Cities NWS
PH