Erratic Tropical Storm Don; Deadly USA heat wave persists
So you wanna be a weather forecaster? Even better, a hurricane forecaster?
Tropical storm Don is confounding forecasters at the National Hurricane Center a bit today.
"Don" flares in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning.
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The storm has been erratic in developing, and Don's future intensity and impacts seem far from certain today. Check out some of the language from the NHC's technical forecast discussion on Don.
"THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE
REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM
VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
SLOW DECLINE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON
MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND
DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. GIVEN THE REDUCED
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9... WITH OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTING THE SMALL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY."
Hurricane forecasting is a tough business, and one of the more difficult specialized areas of meteorology. Weak tropical steering currents, changing ocean temperatures and slight variations in wind shear can mean rapidly fluctuating hurricane intensity.
Hurricane "spaghetti chart" show most models tracking Don toward south Texas.
The models do fairly well with tropical cyclone tracks, but intensity forecasts are much tougher, and less reliable. Let's see what Don has in store in the next 24 hours as it approaches the Texas coast.
Heat Wave 2011: Deadly and persistent
Minnesota has been on the northern edge of the massive heat wave of 2011. We've had our share of hot weather, but nothing compared to places like Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas.
12 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro in 2011
17 days at or above 100 degrees in Topeka, Kansas in 2011!
-The 10 consecutive days of temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees in Topeka this year is tied for Topeka's 7th longest streak of 100 degree temperatures.
Even though we're running a full +5.4 degrees warmer than average in July in the metro, you can see our July heat is almost bearable when compared with the Kansas (and USA) heat wave of 2011.
PH