Summer Lite: Mixed weather bag this week

There may be a little something for everyone in the weather grab bag this week.

If you're a glass half full kind of person, you may find the week to you liking. If you're looking for full on, steamy summer weather you'll have to hang tough for a few days.

Let's break down the forecast this week.

Synopsis:

A weak westerly flow with the jet stream nearby will bring frequent weather changes this week. Several weak disturbances embedded in the flow coming at Minnesota from the west will bring chances for showers or a T-Storm or two. The timing and strength of these little "atmospheric waves" can vary, making for what can be a complicated forecast.

Twin Cities NWS weather story hints at week to come.

Monday:

Wave #1 generated severe showers & T-Storms last night in the Dakotas, but is losing a little steam as it glides into Minnesota Monday. A batch of showers is dying as it moves into western Minnesota today, and it may not survive the trip into the east.

Still what started as a sunny morning may give way to some clouds today as the system moves in from the west.

Look for highs generally in the 70s.

Monday night & Tuesday:

The next wave will generate another chance of showers & T-Storms tonight into early Tuesday. It looks like the slight severe threat will be confined to the Dakotas, southwest Minnesota and western Iowa.

Slight risk for severe storms west Monday & Monday night.

Overnight showers & a T-Storm may linger into Tuesday morning.

Highs again should be in the 70s. How far into the 70s will depend on precisely how much sun we can generate in between waves during the daytime.

Tuesday night & Wednesday:

This may be the strongest wave of the week, but it still may not be a knock down drag out storm producer. A slow moving twist of low pressure will linger into Wednesday and bring rain & thunder chances. Again the best risk for severe storms appears to be south of Minnesota according to SPC.

With the spin overhead and cooler air mass, one thing we may need to keep an eye out for are so called "cold air funnels."

Cold air funnel over Cokato in July 2009

These non severe storm "mini tornadoes" can occasionally touch down and cause minor (EF0 type) damage...and NWS has been known to issue tornado warnings for cold air funnels.

Look for an unsettled Wednesday with a cool high near 70 and occasional showers.

Best chance of widespread showers Wednesday?

Thursday & Friday:

Models diverge a bit later in the week, but one scenario is that Wednesday's slow moving system pulls out of here and leaves improving weather behind Thursday & Friday and into the weekend.

A powerful upper low spinning in Montana may keep enough distance to send T-Storms rumbling though the Dakotas and NW Minnesota into the weekend or it may send a warm front into Minnesota that could brew some storms here.

Either way it looks warmer and temperatures could very well push into the low 80s Friday and into the weekend.

Stay tuned as the weekend forecast evolves this week!

Summer heat returns in about 10-14 days?

The medium range forecast models hint at summer like heat building in about 2 weeks.

A large high pressure ridge could reestablish itself over the central USA around June 25th. If the pattern verifies, heat and humidity will begin to flow north from the Gulf of Mexico...and combine with the highest sun intensity of the year as we pass the summer solstice on June 21st.

The result may be a string of high 80s to 90 degree days with high humidity the last week of June. It may finally feel like summer for an extended time around these parts!

Stay tuned!

PH