Nicer today; Storm tonight? Heat builds Thursday & Friday

Weather headlines for June 1st:

-Wednesday weather improves. More sun, less wind. (but still breezy) High 78. Wind W 10-20 mph eases PM.

-Warm front pushes north tonight. Scattered showers & T-Storms overnight.

-Heat surges north Thursday & Friday. First 90s possible! Muggy dew points near 70?

-Cool front Saturday. Nice weekend with highs near 80 and an isolated T-Storm threat Sunday?

-Meteorological summer begins today! (June 1 - Aug 31)

-Hurricane season begins today. Hurricane outlooks of little value?

-Mosquito Tracker: Find out what's been treated in your neighborhood.

Changeable Forecast:

On a scale of 1 to 10 today might be a 9 in the context of this spring. Look for mainly sunny skies and temps in the mid to upper 70s in southern Minnesota this afternoon.

NWS weather story. (Click all images to enlarge)

Weather station plots over GOES 1km visible satellite image show a west wind again Wednesday morning.

Clouds (and a few showers) may linger in the north with cooler temps in the 60s.

Winds will still blow, but not nearly as strong as the storm force winds of Tuesday. Check out some of Tuesday's observed gusts below. A more complete list from Twin Cities NWS here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1216 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST...

...MINNESOTA...

...ANOKA COUNTY...

1 SW BLAINE (912 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 445 PM MAY 31 34 MPH

2 NW ANOKA (872 FT)(APRSWXNET) 333 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

6 WNW FOREST LAKE (899 FT)(RAWS) 806 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

...CARVER COUNTY...

3 S CARVER (845 FT)(RAWS) 649 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

1 WSW WACONIA (1012 FT)(AWS) 459 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

2 NE LESTER PRAIRIE (938 FT)(MNDOT) 308 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...CHISAGO COUNTY...

1 NE RUSH CITY (921 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1034 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...DAKOTA COUNTY...

2 NE LAKEVILLE (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 633 PM MAY 31 31 MPH

3 WSW FARMINGTON (958 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 652 PM MAY 31 34 MPH

1 SSW FARMINGTON (944 FT)(APRSWXNET) 712 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

2 NNE EAGAN (820 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 454 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

2 NNW BURNSVILLE (792 FT)(MNDOT) 657 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...DOUGLAS COUNTY...

4 NNW ALEXANDRIA (1381 FT)(AWS) 604 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

3 SSE ALEXANDRIA (1440 FT)(MNDOT) 757 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

ALEXANDRIA ASOS (1423 FT)(ASOS) 725 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...HENNEPIN COUNTY...

1 W BROOKLYN PARK (853 FT)(APRSWXNET) 604 PM MAY 31 34 MPH

1 SE MAPLE GROVE (926 FT)(MNDOT) 401 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

1 WSW ROBBINSDALE (2854 FT)(APRSWXNET) 235 PM MAY 31 37 MPH

CRYSTAL ASOS (869 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

FLYING CLOUD ASOS (905 FT)(ASOS) 353 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

1 N MINNEAPOLIS (1066 FT)(APRSWXNET) 217 PM MAY 31 39 MPH

MINNEAPOLIS ASOS (836 FT)(ASOS) 953 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...ISANTI COUNTY...

2 W CAMBRIDGE (941 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 956 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

...KANABEC COUNTY...

1 E MORA (1013 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1057 PM MAY 31 39 MPH

1 ENE MORA (1012 FT)(RAWS) 1108 PM MAY 31 42 MPH

...KANDIYOHI COUNTY...

3 WSW PRINSBURG (3504 FT)(APRSWXNET) 1127 AM MAY 31 34 MPH

4 NW WILLMAR (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 315 PM MAY 31 46 MPH

...LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY...

MADISON (1115 FT)(IEM) 427 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

2 SSE MADISON (1082 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 434 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

5 SSW MARIETTA (1169 FT)(MNDOT) 313 PM MAY 31 54 MPH

...MARTIN COUNTY...

2 ENE FAIRMONT (1161 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 415 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...MCLEOD COUNTY...

1 WSW HUTCHINSON (1051 FT)(APRSWXNET) 503 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

3 E GLENCOE (990 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 515 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

1 SSW HUTCHINSON (1059 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...MEEKER COUNTY...

3 S LITCHFIELD (1076 FT)(RAWS) 411 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...MILLE LACS COUNTY...

1 WSW PRINCETON (977 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 813 PM MAY 31 39 MPH

7 SE ONAMIA (1259 FT)(RAWS) 536 PM MAY 31 42 MPH

8 N MILACA (1195 FT)(MNDOT) 1039 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...POPE COUNTY...

3 E GLENWOOD (1394 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 453 PM MAY 31 48 MPH

9 SSW STARBUCK (1272 FT)(MNDOT) 631 PM MAY 31 50 MPH

...RAMSEY COUNTY...

1 NW NORTH SAINT PAUL (981 FT)(APRSWXNET) 730 PM MAY 31 31 MPH

2 ESE ROSEVILLE (964 FT)(APRSWXNET) 702 PM MAY 31 33 MPH

SAINT PAUL ASOS (685 FT)(ASOS) 553 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...REDWOOD COUNTY...

REDWOOD FALLS ASOS (1023 FT)(ASOS) 653 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...RICE COUNTY...

3 NW FARIBAULT (1056 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 814 PM MAY 31 33 MPH

7 W NORTHFIELD (999 FT)(MNDOT) 315 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

NORTHFIELD (908 FT)(APRSWXNET) 655 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...SCOTT COUNTY...

1 NNW PRIOR LAKE (938 FT)(APRSWXNET) 145 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

1 WNW JORDAN (826 FT)(APRSWXNET) 204 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

1 NW SHAKOPEE (800 FT)(APRSWXNET) 320 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

2 WSW PRIOR LAKE (970 FT)(APRSWXNET) 216 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...STEARNS COUNTY...

4 ESE AVON (1200 FT)(APRSWXNET) 418 PM MAY 31 30 MPH

1 E SAINT JOSEPH (1106 FT)(APRSWXNET) 504 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

2 WSW PAYNESVILLE (1181 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 412 PM MAY 31 46 MPH

1 SE RICHMOND (1089 FT)(APRSWXNET) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 655 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

3 ESE BELGRADE (1249 FT)(MNDOT) 336 PM MAY 31 51 MPH

2 SE SAUK CENTRE (1241 FT)(MNDOT) 347 PM MAY 31 53 MPH

...STEELE COUNTY...

5 NNE ELLENDALE (1192 FT)(MNDOT) 128 PM MAY 31 42 MPH

3 NW OWATONNA (1148 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...SWIFT COUNTY...

2 W BENSON (1040 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 212 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

2 NE APPLETON (1020 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 51 MPH

...WASECA COUNTY...

3 WSW WASECA (1125 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 1240 PM MAY 31 45 MPH

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

2 N HASTINGS (2270 FT)(APRSWXNET) 255 PM MAY 31 30 MPH

2 E LAKE ELMO (935 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 755 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...WRIGHT COUNTY...

2 ESE BUFFALO (967 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 534 PM MAY 31 36 MPH

1 ENE MAPLE LAKE (1026 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 513 PM MAY 31 39 MPH

1 SE CLEARWATER (995 FT)(MNDOT) 422 PM MAY 31 44 MPH

...YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY...

4 SSW GRANITE FALLS (1046 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 213 PM MAY 31 48 MPH

1 NNE CANBY (1191 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 505 PM MAY 31 49 MPH

HANLEY FALLS (1068 FT)(MNDOT) 310 PM MAY 31 49 MPH

...WISCONSIN...

...EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

1 NW AUGUSTA (970 FT)(RAWS) 405 PM MAY 31 33 MPH

4 WNW FAIRCHILD (984 FT)(APRSWXNET) 603 PM MAY 31 43 MPH

...PIERCE COUNTY...

1 W BAY CITY (784 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 535 PM MAY 31 38 MPH

...POLK COUNTY...

2 ESE SAINT CROIX FALLS (1190 FT)(WIDOT) 818 PM MAY 31 34 MPH

1 NNE FREDERIC (1273 FT)(APRSWXNET) 249 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

1 SSE OSCEOLA (902 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 815 PM MAY 31 41 MPH

...ST. CROIX COUNTY...

5 NW RIVER FALLS (895 FT)(WIDOT) 1013 PM MAY 31 35 MPH

2 N NEW RICHMOND (997 FT)(OTHER-MTR) 235 PM MAY 31 40 MPH

1 WSW HUDSON (740 FT)(WIDOT) 309 PM MAY 31 47 MPH

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING

EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA.

Next up: Warm front surges back north

A warm front will surge back north into Minnesota late tonight. As it does, "nocturnal" showers and T-Storms will likely develop along the front in southern Minnesota late tonight. Storms should be scattered, and some may contain hail and gusty winds overnight and early Thursday.

NAM model hints at scattered T-Storms overnight.

Heat builds Thursday & Friday:

Behind the front, a hot sticky tropical summer-like air mass will gurgle north into Minnesota. It's going to feel like summer by Thursday afternoon right through Friday.

The hot hazy air mass will give us our first shot at 90-degree + temps by late Thursday or Friday in southern Minnesota.

Models hinting at 90 by Friday!

The air mass will feature tropical humidity levels, with dew points approaching the sultry 70 degree mark late Thursday & Friday!

Dew points near 70 possible.

The best chance for severe storms appears to be in North Dakota and northern Minnesota Thursday, according to SPC.

SPC risk area Thursday.

Weekend cool front:

A cooler front will slide through early Saturday morning. It looks like the front could come through dry, ushering in a fresher air mass for the weekend. There will be a noticeable drop in humidity this weekend as dew points fall into the comfortable 50s.

Overall this could be a very nice early summer-like weekend, with just a chance of an isolated T-Storm Sunday. We'll have to keep an eye on that as the weekend unfolds.

Hurricane season now underway:

It's June 1st, the "official" start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The various forecasts call for above average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic again this year. While seasonal hurricane forecasts get a lot of attention, you have to wonder at times... is there is really any value to seasonal hurricane forecasts?

There are two main reasons why I do not give credibility to seasonal hurricane forecasts.

1) Accuracy: There have been some dismal errors over the past few hurricane seasons.

An excerpt from my post last April:

Posted at 5:01 PM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner

Filed under: Hurricanes

"The annual April seasonal hurricane forecast is out today from the folks at Colorado State University (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray. After the past few years of iffy forecast results, some are asking; where's the value in producing seasonal hurricane forecasts?

The 2009 forecast was a huge bust for the CSU team. On April 7, 2009, the CSU team issued the spring updated forecast for the 2009 season. They called for near-average activity in 2009 of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

Instead, 2009 produced just 9 named Atlantic storms and only 3 hurricanes. That's the fewest number of Atlantic hurricanes since 1997. No hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2009.

Tracks of named storms in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Looking back at the past 5 years of April CSU hurricane forecasts, the accuracy of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts is at best mixed. They had a very good year in 2008, but in every other year the forecasts have show an error rate of 33% or higher in either the number of named storms or hurricanes. In addition to badly missing the lowest number of hurricanes since 1997 in the 2009 forecast, CSU's April 2005 forecast of 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes completely missed the notion of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. In addition to the devastating Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005 produced a record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic. The CSU team under forecast both the number of named storms and hurricanes in 2005 by over 50%."

Not to pick on CSU, NOAA doesn't fare much better. Jeff Masters has the details.

"How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?

A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast (Figure 2). Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast."

2) Lack of landfall projections.

If you think predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is hard, try predicting the number that will make landfall! There were no land falling hurricanes in the USA in 2009 or 2010. Even with an active season last year, an accurate seasonal hurricane forecast had no value in predicting hurricane damage potential.

Short term hurricane forecasts have more value:

The real, demonstrable value lies in short term hurricane forecasts such as those issued by the National Hurricane Center. A 2004 paper in The Journal of Applied Meteorology estimates the value of existing 48-hour hurricane forecast information to oil and gas producers averaged roughly $8 million per year during the 1990s, which substantially exceeds the operating budget of the National Hurricane Center.

It appears clear that the real return on investment value in improving hurricane forecasts lies in the continued improvement in short term hurricane landfall and intensity forecasts. The seasonal hurricane forecasts make great headlines, but are they really worth the time, effort and investment in research dollars?

Mosquito Tracker:

Those first pesky "Minnesota State Birds" are biting at the weather lab. If you live in the metro you can see where the MMCD has treated mosquito breeding areas near your home.

Good luck!

PH