Weekend weather treat!

You may want to buy a lottery ticket today.

It appears for once we may get lucky and a great early summer-like weekend in Minnesota.

Trends indicate that Friday's hot sticky summery air mass will be swept east this weekend and replaced by a sunnier, drier fresher weather pattern.

My weather toes and fingers are crossed that the maps verify, but it looks good.

Season's first 90s Friday!

Tropical heat and humidity surged north into southern Minnesota Friday. The "hot front" pushed temperatures into the 90s from the metro south.

Here are some readings as of 4pm Friday. Rochester takes the golden thermometer so far with 96 degrees as of 4pm!

Update 5pm: Austin hits 97!

AUSTIN PTSUNNY 97 61 30 SW21G26 29.75S HX 97

MNZ060>063-068>070-032200-

Twin Cities Metro

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TWIN CITIES CLOUDY 91 68 46 SW10 29.71S HX 95

ST PAUL PTSUNNY 89 69 51 S9 29.71S HX 93

CRYSTAL CLOUDY 88 70 55 W6 29.70S HX 93

BLAINE PTSUNNY 88 72 58 S8 29.71F HX 94

EDEN PRAIRIE CLOUDY 87 68 52 SW9 29.71R HX 90

LAKEVILLE PTSUNNY 90 66 45 S7 29.72R HX 92

SOUTH ST PAUL PTSUNNY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.70S HX 93

LAKE ELMO FAIR 86 68 54 S10 29.72F

South Central Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

FAIRMONT CLOUDY 90 64 43 SW21G29 29.77S HX 91

FARIBAULT PTSUNNY 91 57 31 SW14G20 29.76R HX 90

OWATONNA PTSUNNY 93 61 33 SW20G32 29.74R HX 93

WASECA PTSUNNY 90 59 35 SW13 29.76S

ALBERT LEA MOSUNNY 91 61 35 SW10G23 29.71S HX 91

$$

Southeast Minnesota

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ROCHESTER MOSUNNY 96 65 35 S23G30 29.79S HX 98

RED WING CLOUDY 91 66 43 S15G21 29.72F HX 94

STANTON PTSUNNY 93 63 36 S10G21 29.72R HX 94

DODGE CENTER MOSUNNY 90 63 40 SW24G31 29.77R HX 90

WINONA PTSUNNY 91 64 40 S8 29.77S HX 93

AUSTIN SUNNY 93 61 33 SW21G28 29.76R HX 93

PRESTON SUNNY 92 62 36 SW23G37 29.79F HX 93

Temperatures pushed 100 in northern Iowa Friday!

NORTHWEST IOWA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CARROLL * MOSUNNY 99 48 18 SW26G37 29.79S HX 95

The air mass is also topically humid, with the season's first 70 degree dew points in the metro Friday.

Blaine recorded a dew point of 72 Friday, and my "unofficial" La Crosse Technology digital weather station the weather lab in the west metro recorded a dew point of 74.8 degrees !

SPC is monitoring easatern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin for a slight severe threat Friday night, with the best severe parameters are focused on northwest Wisconsin.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0333 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL WI...WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032033Z - 032200Z

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF

STRONG CAP MAY BE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER SCNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH

ECHOES ARE WEAK WITH THIS CONVECTION...THERE IS A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT

WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT TOWARD A FAIRLY

MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/NRN WI WHERE INTENSIFICATION

MAY OCCUR. WHILE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THE WARM

ADVECTION ZONE OVER WI...SUSTAINED ASCENT MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO

SUFFICIENT COOLING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP FOR DEEPER UPDRAFTS TO ROOT INTO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IF SO...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING

SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DARROW.. 06/03/2011

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Sunnier, drier weekend:

Let's break down the weekend.

Friday night:

A cool front pushing through Minnesota will drag scattered showers, T-Storms and a tropical air mass east into Wisconsin Friday later evening.

Scattered storms may accompany the front as it moves east.

SPC is monitoring the area (especially NW Wisconsin) for a slight severe risk.

Temperatures will slowly fall from the hot & sticky upper 80s and 90s in southern Minnesota Friday evening.

Saturday & Sunday: "Dry Front"

The air behind the front is still summer-like with temperatures near 80 this weekend in the south, and 70s up north. But you'll really notice a drop in humidity Saturday.

Dew points behind the front are in the 30s and 40s in the Dakotas!

The weekend looks mostly dry and sunny, but I can't rule out a stray shower or T-Storm Sunday afternoon or Sunday night.

Don't look now, but we might actually get a rare nice weekend in 2011.

Why so many tornadoes and deaths in 2011?

Here's some great perspective on why tornadoes can cause so much destruction, tornado myths and simple ways to make your home more "tornado resistant" from the NWS office in Milwaukee. (Thanks to MPR & Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for passing this along)

"Tornado Myths

"There is never a shortage of tornado myths in the U.S. Our time on this earth is limited, but the weather goes on for millions of years. Therefore, we are not around long enough to experience all the tornado variations that occur. This leads to the formation of tornado myths such as:

Tornadoes don't occur in cities because the tall buildings split storms (what about the tornadoes in Dallas, St. Louis, Joplin, Birmingham, Nashville, Springfield MA, Salt Lake City, Miami, Chicago, and Milwaukee Mitchell Field?)

Tornadoes don't occur over mountains, ridges, hills, plateaus, or ledges (what about a tornado at 13,000 feet elevation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains?)

Tornadoes don't go down into river valleys (what about the Springfield, MA, tornado in the Connecticut River Valley?)

Tornadoes don't cross over ponds, lakes, swamps, marshes, or bogs (what about the tornado that spun up over the Horicon Marsh, WI?)

Low Pressure in a Tornado Causes a Building to Explode. The tornado winds and flying debris-missiles slamming into buildings cause most structural damage.

Windows Should be Opened Before a Tornado Approaches to Equalize Pressure and Minimize Damage. Opening windows allows damaging winds to enter the structure. Leave the windows alone; instead, immediately go to a safe place.

The Southwest Side of a Basement is the Safest Place in a Basement. Since most tornadoes move southwest to northeast, it was assumed that most of the debris would be carried northeast away from the southwest part of a building. However, tornadoes can move west to east, or even northwest to southeast. Additionally, large pieces of debris or even vehicles can crash into a basement.

Tornadoes Don't Visit the Same Place Twice. Different tornadoes have traveled through the same location on the same day. They have visited the same county in three consecutive years. It's just a matter of time - maybe not in your lifetime - but eventually it will happen.

Why so Many Tornado Deaths?

Many factors influence determine how many people are killed by a tornado. Some of the possibilities are listed below:

The population of the U.S. has more than doubled since 1950. We have urban sprawl and expanding suburbs. A significant shift in the population has occurred - more people than ever live in cities as some rural areas lose people. More people and higher concentrations of people equal increased chances of death.

Strength of Tornado. The stronger a tornado is the higher the speed of its winds and therefore the greater the chances for fatalities and destruction. Tornadoes strength is rated on a scale from 0 to 5, with 5 being the strongest. EF0 and EF1 tornadoes (65 to 110 mph) are considered "weak," EF2 and EF3 tornadoes (111 to 165 mph) are considered "strong," and EF4 and EF5 tornadoes (166 mph to over 200 mph) are considered "violent."

Below is a table showing the percentage breakdown of number of tornadoes in the U.S. (1950-1994) by EF-Scale group, as well as the percentage of deaths for each group.

EF4 & EF5 tornadoes comprise about 1% of all tornadoes, yet produce 67% of all tonado deaths! (Click image to enlarge)

Violent tornadoes basically destroy and/or level standard, stick-built residential homes and most other structures that don't have a steel or concrete core or have extra anchoring devices that enhance that building's wind-resistant capabilities. So for most people in this country, there isn't much that can be done when it comes to EF4 and EF5 tornadoes unless they are in a storm shelter or safe room designed to withstand such a tornado (see other related factors in this listing). End result is increased chances of death with violent tornadoes."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Bottom line? We may be able to pin part of the 2011 tornado swarm onto a La Nina induced weather pattern, but the numerous direct hits on cities this year is probably just (the bad) luck of the draw, and increasing sprawl.

Makes us appreciate a quiet weather pattern this weekend.

Enjoy the weekend!

PH

Update 5:40pm:

SPC has tacked on Tornado Watch #424 until midnight for much of northeast Minnesota.

Update 5:40pm:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

530 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD

NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF ELY

MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Update 5:30pm:

SPC has issued Tornado Watch #423 for much of western Wisconsin until midnight.

The watch does not include the Twin Cities metro and it appears the severe weather threat is focused in Wisconsin tonight.

Here are the included counties for MPR listeners in western Wisconsin.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 423

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

510 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

WIC005-017-033-035-091-107-040500-

/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.A.0423.110603T2215Z-110604T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 423 IN

EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

BARRON RUSK

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE

PEPIN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHIPPEWA FALLS...DURAND...

EAU CLAIRE...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE AND RICE LAKE.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

The text from SPC.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 423

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

515 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREEN BAY

WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PH