Midday Update: Wind, snow & ice increasing
Midday update
Snow and ice continue to increase and move east. The forecast seems pretty much on track, with travel conditions deteriorating from west to east this afternoon. A mixed bag of snow/sleet and some freezing rain moving through the metro from west to east from lunchtime into the PM hours.
MNDOT traffic cams are already showing snow, reduced visibility and slick travel in western Minnesota along I-94.
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MNDOT traffic cam (at MP 37) along I-94 between Fargo and Fergus Falls.
-Latest road conditons from MNDOT
-Latest traffic cameras and pavement sensors from MNDOT
MNDOT travel map shows road conditions worsening in western Minnesota.
MNDOT weather & pavement senesors along I-94 east of Fargo showing road surfaces below freezing with icing underway.
Latest NAM 84 hour snowfall output reduces snow for the metro into the 1" to 2" (possibly 3" range north)
I still think the snow may be intense enough and last long enough to generate 2" to 4" for much of the metro by late tonight.
Prepare for slick travel this afternoon and tonight!
PH
Update 9:20 am:
Getting some snow and freezing rain reports now from western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. This confirms what we are seeing on radars....precip that was aloft is now reaching the ground.
Observations as of 9 am:
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WHEATON SNOW 21 18 86 SE21G28 29.83S VSB 1/2 WCI 6
ORTONVILLE LGT SNOW 23 19 86 SE16 29.76F VSB 3/4 WCI 10
MADISON LGT SNOW 25 21 86 SE18 29.77F WCI 11
CANBY LGT SNOW 24 22 91 SE10 29.76F WCI 14
SIOUX FALLS FRZ DRZL 27 22 81 SE8 29.70R WCI 19
It looks like we're still on track for mostly snow (with some ice) to reach the Twin Cities around lunch time, and pick up in intensity after 2pm-3pm this afternoon.
The latest NAM model run (just in) spits out .23" liquid for the metro. That would be about 2.5" in the south metro...with a little more likey north. A 2" to 4" range still looks pretty good for most of the Twin Cities. Best chance of 2" south...best chance of 4" or 5" north suburbs.
Radars continue to light up west of the metro this morning.
There is still a good window for travel heading east from the metro until noon. Travel is becoming dicey by the minute heading west on I-94 as snow increases west of St. Cloud.
PH
Update 8:30am:
Radars beginning to light up with elevated precip west of a Redwood Falls-Willmar-St. Cloud line this morning. Most of this is virga (precip still aloft) and evaporating in dry air near the surface. Dew points are still in the teens early today near the ground, so it will take a few hours for the "top down" moistening process to get going.
Snow now reaching the ground west of Willmar.
Expect snow and sleet to reach ground level pretty much anytime now in west central Minnesota and spread slowly east toward the metro late morning or around lunch time.
There is still a window of good travel weather this morning from the Twin Cities north, south and east. If you're heading to Duluth, Green Bay, Madison, Chicago, or Des Moines and you can get going before 9am your should have pretty decent travel weather until noon...then all bets are off as precip moves in.
The peak of the storm (highest snow intensity) still looks to be between 2pm and 9pm tonight for most of Minnesota, lingering overnight into Thanksgiving Day in the north. Winds of 15 to 30 mph will be a factor when the snow gets going today.
Stay tuned for updates as precip shield increases west of the Twin Cities this morning.
PH
*****Orignal post near midnight*****
The timing could be better.
Our well advertised Thanksgiving week wintery weather blast moves in on one of the biggest travel days of the year for Minnesotans. While this may not fall into the "major winter storm" category for parts of Minnesota, the impact will be magnified by the timing. (Weekday, rush hour, day before Thanksgiving.)
Here's the latest thinking on storm timing and impacts from the latest batch of model runs, which are pretty consistent with previous forecasts overall.
Timing & precip type: It looks like a band of precip will develop Wednesday morning in western Minnesota, then expand and spread east (including the metro area) by late morning or lunchtime.
Precip is likely to begin as a mixed bag of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The latest models are trending toward mostly snow from the Twin Cities north...but a layer of warm air will mix in close enough to the metro that precip type could mix in (especially the SE) metro. It's just to close to call.
Nam model paints a NW-SE band of precip in Minnesota Wednesday PM.
Bottom line: Expect mostly snow...but precip could be mixed from the Twin Cities south. Regardless of precip type, the impact on roads may be the same...slicker by the hour Wednesday PM.
Modles range 2" to 4" of snow for the metro.
(click to enlarge)
The heaviest burst of snow appears to be slated for mid to late PM...roughly between 2pm and 7pm. PM rush in the metro looks like it will be quite a mess.
A dry slot may reduce (or end) snowfall & mixed precip from west to east between 7 and 10pm in the metro.
Snowfall totals: As usual, it's all about the freezing line and precip type when it comes to snowfall totals. The Twin Cities looks to be right on the razor's edge of the snow/sleet/freezing rain zone this time. As a result, there could be a significant range of snowfall totals from southeast to northwest across the metro.
I will stick with my overall forecast of between 2" and 5" totals through Thanksgiving Day as a wide range from south to north across the metro at this point until I see the morning model runs.
My gut? 2" to 3" in the heart of the metro...a little less south and a little more north. The best shot at 4-5" will come in the northern suburbs, the best shot at more ice & sleet and 1" of snow in the southeast metro. Rogers will likely see more snow that Rosemount, etc.
Also the snow may come in two phases...round one Wednesday, a break Wednesday night (dry slot) into Thursday, then some wrap around with the cold air (another 1/2 inch?) Thanksgving Day.
84 hour NAM GFS model snowfall totals. Heaviest snow favored north of the metro.
Northern Minnesota still looks to get the heaviest snowfall:
A band of 5" to 10" could fall anywhere north of a Fargo to Duluth line. Travel will be very difficult heading north Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day!
Northern Minnesota looks to get the heaviest totals form this storm.
Bottom line: expect travel conditions to deteriorate as the day wears on Wednesday, followed by a much colder shot of air with sub-zero wind chills Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.
Storm character: This will be a quick hitting storm of relatively short duration. The most intense part of the storm will be between 2pm and 8pm (metro), duration of about 6 hours. There could be a period of rather intense snowfall...or snow bursts within the system Wednesday afternoon or early evening. Thundersnow is possible in the intense bursts.
Strong winds (35mph+) on the back side of the system could whip snowfall into the air and produce a ground blizzard in the Red River Valley Thursday night into early Friday morning!
Get the latest NWS warnings & updates here:
And you can check Twin Cities radar here:
Stay tuned to the forecasts Wednesday as the system rolls into Minnesota...and be safe!
PH