Much needed rainfall
A low pressure system sweeping through the Upper Midwest is bringing much needed rainfall to much of Minnesota.
The rain will likely come in a few waves, with breaks in between. There will be thunderstorms embedded within the overall rain areas. Some of the storms could be strong with downpours, some hail and gusty winds, but it looks like the best threat for severe weather will be in eastern South Dakota and Iowa. The system and showers should exit Minnesota by about lunch time Friday.
Most indications hint at a good soaker. Overall the forecast models cluster between .50" and as much as 1". As is typically the case with summertime convective rainfall, amounts can vary greatly over short distances.
Here are a few of the model forecast scenarios for rainfall.
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NOAA rainfall forecast paints some 1" amounts in souther Minnesota.
Usually overly aggressive NAM (fantasizes?) about 2"+ rainfall for the metro.
Forecasters at the Twin Cities NWS seem to agree with your truly that this system has the potential for an inch of rain in some areas of southern Minnesota by lunchtime Friday. Here's an excerpt from the PM forecast discussion below.
PWAT VALUES SOAR TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL TONIGHT
/AROUND 1.8 INCHES/...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE ONE INCH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE UP OF MI.
Keep in mind that Eden Prairie could get and inch of rain, while someplace close by such as Edina could end up with .25" rainfall. That's the fickle nature of highly localized summertime convective rainfall.
I cut the lawn short at the weather lab Thursday. I'm betting on at least .50" to soak things up. I'll let you know how that bet worked out Friday PM.
Drought hangs tough:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor this week keeps much of eastern Minnesota either abnormally dry or in drought. The abnormally dry conditions expanded a bit in the metro.
Keep in mind the readings were taken before the rainfall Tuesday night. A good shot of rain the next few days could keep the drought from expanding further, or maybe take a bite out of the drought area if some places see an inch or rain or more.
PH