Did weather cause the Air France crash?
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Graphic shows how a microburst can cause jetliners to crash near the ground. A microburst caused Delta Flight 191 to crash in Dallas in 1985, killing 135 people.
Early speculation is that weather MAY have played a role in the Air France crash over the Atlantic Monday. The fact is, we just don't know yet. Reports indicate the airliner did encounter strong to severe thunderstorms in a band called the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ.
Weather is fingered as the cause in about 12% of all air crashes. Lightning has caused many incidents. Improvements in aircraft design have made today's jet liners mostly safe from lightning strikes. A University of Florida study indicates about one jetliner a year is struck by lightning over U.S. skies. Usually the lightning strike passes right around the aluminum skin of the aircraft in a process called the Faraday Effect. It's the same reason you are generally safe in your car if it is struck by lightning. We do no yet know if the Air France jetliner was struck by lightning.
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It is interesting to note that only 6% of all airliner crashes occur at cruising altitude even though cruising occupies 57% of total flight time.
Most weather related air crashes probably occur closer to ground level, where icing and downbursts are more common.
Extreme turbulence has also factored in aircraft incidents. In 1997 extreme turbulence killed on person on a flight from Japan to Hawaii.
Downbursts and microbursts have causes several crashes over the years. Microbursts are violent downdrafts of turbulent wind from severe thunderstorms. The Delta 191 microburst crash in Dallas helped spur NOAA to assemble the network of NEXRAD Doppler radars we use to detect severe local storms today.
Icing is also a danger in winter months in colder climates, and is cited as a possible factor in the crash of Continental flight 3407 in February near Buffalo, New York.
It is impossible to know yet what caused Air France flight 447 to go down in the tropical Atlantic. What we do know is that even though aviation has adapted to fly in all kinds of weather, weather still has the power to bring down an aircraft when conditions are right.
Thankfully advances in aircraft design and construction, and advances in weather forecasting and warning technology have made flying on of the safest ways to travel.
PH