Happy New Weather Year
I'd call this a good New Year's Day.
It's 3 above outside and I'm toasty warm in the Weather Lab, the arctic sun beaming through my weather window. Icicles a yard long dangle from the gutters, and a pristine white snow covered landscape stretches out before my eyes.
Oh yeah, and the Penguins and Sabers are playing a TV game OUTSIDE in the snow in Buffalo. Snow is piling up on the outdoor ice; I am instantly transformed back to my youth hockey days. It's total rink rat hockey out in the weather, and I love every minute.
As I prep my broadcasts today and the Jet Streaming podcast tomorrow I'm finding some interesting trends for 2007, and some big questions for 2008.
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By most measures, 2007 was another "top 10" weather year. Check out these highlights.
-Global average surface temperatures show the 5th warmest year on record since 1880.
-7 of the 8 warmest years globally have occurred since 2001. ALL of the top 10 warmest years have occurred since 1997.
-Global average surface temps have risen by 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900, but since 1976 the rate of increase is 3 times faster than the century scale trend.
-The greatest warming is at high latitudes, and the effects in 2007 were staggering. More Arctic Sea ice melted in 2007 than at any time since satellite measurements began in 1979. In fact the new 2007 record was 23% less than the previous record set in 2005.
-The northern hemisphere recorded the warmest year on record.
-In the USA we saw 8th warmest year on record.
All of these facts fit perfectly in the overall puzzle that is global climate change.
In Minnesota we saw drought, then floods. 7 people were killed in the southeast Minnesota floods of August18-20th. Temperatures were above average in 10 of 12 months, including 9 months in a row from March through November.
For the year the Twin Cities recorded the 8th warmest year on record. We were 1.8 degrees warmer than average for the year.
But the number that really caught my eye is 198. That's how many days long the growing season was this year in the metro. Compare that to the average of 166 days, and you can see we've added a full month to our growing season this year. The question is, is this the new normal in the era of climate change in Minnesota?
We were frost free in the metro from April 14th to October 28th. I think I like that!
So what do we expect in 2008?
1) Will we have another "top 10 warmest year" globally?
2) What will be the extent of Arctic Sea Ice melt in 2008?
3) Will the west and southeast U.S. recover from drought?
4) After 2 quiet years for U.S. land falling hurricanes, will more storms strike the USA in 2008? And will the CSU hurricane forecasting team have a better year after two marginal forecasts?
I am looking forward to a great 2008. Something tells me the weather will keep our attention this year, and keep me happily busy in the Huttner Weather Lab.
PH