Location, location, location…timing

Forecasting the elements is what we do. To be accurate we have to first match the weather with a location, then the degree of magnitude, followed by the timing. Our success pretty much can be compared with selling or buying a house. As real estate agents often proclaim, it’s about location, location, location. But timing has been more critical to the housing market.

Saturday’s snowfall was the heaviest well north of the metro, due in large part to the shift of the major weathermaking parameters being pushed north. Snow, by my prediction on Friday, also started a little earlier.

You’ll find plenty of recreational quality snow across the state, with the greatest depth towards Duluth and the North Shore.

Tuesday’s snow brings another challenge of location, magnitude and timing. Our Monday morning analysis suggests the snow will begin overnight in the Red River Valley and then expand southeast. A surface low, initiating snow development, will move to near Sioux Falls at midday, placing the heaviest snow accumulation from about Grand Forks to the Twin Cities through the day on Tuesday.

If timing is good, the snowfall will not begin to glaze up roadways in the metro until after the Tuesday morning rush hour. A steady snowfall could tally up to four inches by dark.

Graphical forecast

Snow is likely to continue tracking southeast Tuesday afternoon. If your travels take you into Wisconsin you might encounter a challenging drive down I-94. I expect it to be icey-dicey between Minneapolis/St. Paul and Fargo.


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