We’ve seen a wide range of high temperatures in the Twin Cities metro area this January.

We’ve recorded some single digit highs, some teens, some 30s, one day in the 20s and one day in the 40s:

Twin Cities data, via the National Weather Service

We’ll pop back into the 30s today in the Twin Cities metro area and most of Minnesota, with some lower 40s in southwestern Minnesota.

You’ll need the blue juice this Thursday afternoon, to clear off the spray from wet or slushy roads and streets.

Temperature trends

Friday high temps will be in the 30s in about the northern half of Minnesota, with 40s south:

Saturday highs are expected to be mostly in the 30s:

A few lower 40s are possible in the southwest.

Sunday will feature 20s in about the northern third of Minnesota, with 30s central and south.

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the 20s Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Our average metro area high is 24 by next week.

Snowstorm potential late Sunday into Monday

It’s interesting to see how the various forecast models handle the low-pressure system that moves out of the Rockies this coming weekend.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model for Sunday through Monday evening:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Sunday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the amount of precipitation.

Southeastern Minnesota could see rain or a rain-snow mix that eventually changes to all snow.

The GFS shows some double digit snow totals from southwestern Minnesota to parts of northwestern Wisconsin late Sunday into Monday:

NOAA GFS snow totals from Sunday through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The Twin Cities metro area rides the southern edge of the heaviest snow generated by the GFS model.

For comparison, the Canadian model shows the heaviest snow band a bit more to the north:

Canadian GEM forecast model snow totals Sunday through Monday night, via tropicaltidbits

The latest run of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model gives the Twin Cities almost one-half inch of precipitation late Sunday through Monday:

European Centre forecast for Minneapolis, via Norwegian Met Institute

Here’s the conversion of those 12.4 millimeters to inches:

A 10-to-1 snow-to-water ratio would give the Twin Cities almost 5 inches of snow.

The GFS model would bring us 8 to 9 inches in the metro area.

The Canadian model would give us much less snow, primarily because it shows mostly rain in the Twin Cities metro until Monday afternoon, with snow to the north.

We’ll let you know if the forecast models reach a consensus as we get closer to Sunday.

At this point, let’s just say that parts of Minnesota could see significant snow and difficult travel conditions from late Sunday through Monday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

If you like snow, you’ll like today’s forecast. A low pressure system will spread snow across Minnesota and western Wisconsin today, and it’ll linger into Sunday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential Sunday through Monday snowfall pattern: Notice how the snow lingers over Wisconsin on Monday, Read more