Who will win the race for president if the economy doesn’t improve by early November?

Jon Gordon July 9, 2012, 5:00 AM Jul 9, 2012

In June the U.S. economy added only 80,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 8.2 percent. Many economists expected better numbers. Today’s Question: Who will win the race for president if the economy doesn’t improve by early November?

About the blogger

Jon Gordon

jgordon@mpr.org • @jongordon • 1-651-290-1024

Jon Gordon was the director of digital news for MPR News.

Kurt

Romney should win in a landslide, but given the difficulty of unseating an incumbant, the comfort of an opposition party controlling the House and Romney’s apathy, I expect Obama to win.

Clark

Depending on how many of the moocher class vote, Romney should win over our current clueless community activist president.

Obama hates private enterprise with a passion. He clearly is clueless on how to expand the economy other than to attack success and reward failure..

Europe has tried to tax it’s way to growth and it has been a failure.

In Obama’s world, meritocracy and competition are a sin and it is his responsibility to use the government as an instrument of plunder for the moocher class.

The top 10% of taxpayers now pay 73% of all taxes? In Obama’s world, this is not “fair”. His appetite for increasing taxes and expanding social welfare is limitless.

In my own company, we stopped hiring full time staff, and now engage only contrators due to the uncertainty of future Obama obligations on our company.

Clearly, the worst president in 100 years, unless, of course, your job is to walk down to the mailbox every month to collect your welfare check and food stamps.

reggie

Obama. The more we learn about Romney’s experience as an investor, the clearer it becomes that he will treat the country as he treated the companies in which Bain invested: suck out the profits and let others suffer the consequences. If I was a selfish member of the 1%, I’d be all for that. But since I’m in the other 99%, I don’t see the Romney/Bain approach working for us.

Rich

Obama gets the blame for not having a “miracle-cure” for eight years of hardcore GOP/Bush rule-by-dogma. How will “Bush-Lite” cure the problem? By restoring the same policies and practices that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Michael Zalar

There’s an old joke about being chased by a lion. You dont have to be the fastest man in the group, just faster than one other person.

Obama does not have to show that he is doing a great job on the economy, just better than what Romney would do.

Romney, in part because of spin, but to a large extent because of his own gaffs, is getting the image of being on close terms with the rich, and isolated from the middle class. Running the country like a corporation, especially during hard times, is not going to win him the election.

Obama can at least make the claim that he has improved the economy, though if unemployment remains at 8.2% that will be a hard sell, even playing the card of Republican obstructionism. It could be poined out that job losses are in public sector jobs, and unemployment (according to some) could be as low as 7% if there had not been so many government cuts, and more stimulus, but the general public is a hard sell on “ifs” like that.

Obama, I think, is currently ahead of Romney in the race to stay ahead of the lion, but if Romney can turn his compaign around and the economic mud slows Obama down, then Romney could win. If Obama can retain some traction, he has the political ability to keep his lead, as he did with both Clinton and McCain in 2008.

Emery

Mr. Zalar is correct.

Obama’s policies helped prevent a Great Depression. Since the spring of 2010, payrolls have risen by more than four million. If the do-nothing Republicans in Congress had passed the Administration’s American Jobs Act, which contained more financial help for cash-strapped states that are still laying off teachers and other employees, many more Americans would be working.

Obama’s stimulus plan passed the House of Representatives without a single Republican vote. In the Senate, it just hit the 60 vote threshold needed to overcome filibuster threats. Getting there took the votes of two Republican senators. One, Arlen Specter, later switched parties to become a Democrat. The other, Maine Republican Olympia Snowe, famously demanded a reduction in the size of the package, in the form of cuts to aid planned for state and local governments, in exchange for her vote.

Steve the Cynic

As the old saying goes, it’s tricky making predictions, especially about the future.

And assessing any president’s effectiveness by how “the economy” is doing is utterly ridiculous. The president has only marginally more control over the economy than he does over the weather. There are so many factors beyond the president’s control, that what he can control is insignificant, In ancient times, people would blame the king for droughts and/or credit him with making the rains come. With the economy and the president in place of the weather and the king, we’ve kept that superstition largely intact.

GregX

depneds on who shows up to vote – which is a pathetic way to decide. We should be enforcing either mandatory vote – OR a requriement that 90% of the voting adutls participate to make a vote valid. .

Steve the Cynic

What’s with the proliferation of spam posts on the TQ pages (like the one at 8:23am today)?

matt

I don’t think the economy will matter in November. Romney is uninspiring and represents change (not in any dramatic sense…just different than Obama) and change is scary, that is why incumbents win. Obama holds the white house. I think the economy will play out more in the other seats open from the state houses to congress/senate. I think there is a strong chance that the economy will flip control of the senate.

James

This is shaping up to be a pretty dull presidential election.

Romney is reminiscent of some other potentially strong, but ultimately lame, challengers including Bob Dole and John Kerry. Both had beatable opponents but didn’t step up to the task, because they didn’t convince enough people that they would do a better job than the incumbent.

Romney is trying to stick the bad economy on Obama but our memories aren’t that bad. Rather than blaming Obama, he should be describing what he would do differently. I’ve heard nothing! Likely because he’s got nothing.

My guess is that with 92% employment, the main issue is not the economy and this election will turn on some other issue.

Given how gaffe-prone Romney is, and how smooth Obama is, I suspect Romney is in trouble unless the economy actually tanks again between now and November.

Larry M.

Romney is offering what got us into this mess. I hope that the memory of the American public isn’t so bad that they get sold the bill of goods that got us into this mess a second time.

Jim G

I’m being asked to predict the future. Currently, I’m not able to do that beyond a 50% accuracy level. But, I know I don’t want to live in Mitt’s world: massive boats, East Hampton estates, gleaming Bentley’s, Porsches, and Mercedes- Benzes, billionaire’s lining up to donate Republican Party that brought on the last economic disaster. They’re back, and they know what side of the toast to butter.

I know I don’t want to wake up every morning to another picture from Mitt’s world on the front page while the middle class burns to the ground. I know I don’t want our tax code to reward continued outsourcing. This job hemorrhage has got to stop or there won’t be a middle class. In Mitt’s world austerity will be the policy of our federal government. That means cuts… in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. In November, I will vote to stop Mitt’s world from becoming an everyday reality in my world.

A more honest question is: Who do you want to win in November? As a middle class voter threatened by billionaires’ unrestricted money fueling super-pacts, my answer is Obama. His roots are in the working middle class. He’s like me. I can relate to him. Relate to Romney? Never… his boat is too big.

Regnar James

“It’s Dubyah’s fault” is getting pretty thin right about ……three years ago.

The big O has given us near nothing other than a health care plan than will sink the country economically….. only more nanny state – socialism. I wonder who he will find to bow down to in retirement?

I wish Ross would run :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot

He had insight, respect (well earned), compassion, and a big brass set.

As for the two leading clowns bidding for the top job… WOW … they could not fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

Maybe Ron Paul.

∑

DTOM
Paul

Obama – Regardless, the president can’t do much about the economy and MPR shouldn’t perpetuate that myth.
John

I won’t matter. They will both go to war(s) and the economy will still collapse, we don’t have a chance. They are both bought out by the banks. Just look at who gives them the most money.
David Poretti

I am struggling with the argument that President Obama is anti-private business. Look at Wall Street – they have never had such good numbers. Corporate America is awash with cash. Virtually all of the private sector jobs lost due to the Great Recession have been replaced. The 8+% unemployment rate that has been hung on President Obama is largely due to cuts in government spending. Knock-knock! If you cut government budgets, you will have unemployed (former) government employees. Knock-knock! If you provide incentives for corporations to out-source their labor off-shore, you will have unemployed (former) private sector workers. Knock-knock! If you provide tax incentives for shell corporations to operate off-shore and do business in the U.S., you will have corporations that do not pay their fair share in supporting our country. Knock-knock! If you provide tax incentives for multi-millionaires to off-shore their riches, you will have individuals that do not pay their fair share in supporting our country. Considering that the marching orders for every “good” Republican were to ensure that President Obama was a one-term president, no matter the national or global consequences, it is quite amazing we are collectively doing as well as we are – though I suspect history will judge this period as an opportunity squandered.
Clark

Greg x. If only stupid people vote, appears we will end up with a president who can relate. A president who is confused by Numbers

Cheers to the 1%.
Bill

I agree, it won’t make any difference they are both the same. Our future is more debt, war, death of the middle class, and government control.
Ann

In the past I voted Republican. I guess the Republicans didn’t figure out that many conservatives won’t vote for Romney and he won’t be able to attract many independents. John Boehner seems to understand this–according to his last statement.This would have been a perfect year to have a good third party. I will just have to write in a name. So Obama will probably win because the Republicans failed to find someone who can communicate a strong message and attract votes.
Ralph

I think a lot of people are going to write in Ron Paul. He is the only one that represents hope for the future. The others Romney and Obama are going to lead us into the ground.
Bryan

Today it was announced that Iceland’s economy is surpassing most economies because they refused to bail out the Icelandic banks. We should have done that, let them fail, why should we pay for there mistakes.
Rose

Comments on the Economy and indicators::

1) PAC spending is helping the economy through advertisers and ad agencies. As and where money is spent there are jobs and the multiplier effect of the spending.

2) Since it is wealthy executives who provide donations to republican PACs; aren’t they also delaying hiring?

3) I don’t believe the hiring numbers. We receive the hiring numbers from ADP. Not all employers, especially small and medium sized employers don’t use ADP; so how does ADP receive input for those sectors?

Let’s discuss…..
georges

The Democrats thank you.

The Republicans thank you, too.

The whole Republicrat sub-species thanks you.

For talking about healthcare. And unemployment. And the economy. And foriegn relations.

For concentrating on the trees, while totally ignoring the forest.

For, in fact, pulling the wool over your own eyes.

So the government class can keep on stealing the wealth of the middle class and giving it to their Super Rich bosses without even being noticed.

Thank you. Thank you very much.
Steve the Cynic

A bit paranoid, are we, georges? Maybe you need your meds adjusted.
Sally

If Obama and Romney debate in person and fall madly in love with each other and begetting a bromance of unusual circumstance they can press for abolishing the government’s hand in marriage and instead take a stand for reasonable civil unions of mutually consenting adults number 2 or more.

Then I suppose Ron Paul might win.

Unless the RepubliCrats reconfigure after such a novel unfoldment … still, it’s 2012, all bets are off.