Grading the polls

While we like to say — accurately — that polls are merely a snapshot in time, let’s face it: We view them as the predictors they aren’t. So we can judge who nailed it, and who didn’t. Keep the margin-of-error in mind.

As I type this, it’s Dayton 44%, Emmer 43% and Horner 12%. Compare:

Poll/Date Dayton Emmer Horner Grade
Pub.Policy -10/29 43 40 15 A-
Survey USA (10/27) 39 38 13 B+
MPR/Humphrey (10/25) 41 29 11 D
Star Tribune 41 34 13 D
St. Cloud State(10/21)Likely voters 40 30 19 D
St. Cloud State(10/21)All respondents 37 27 18 D
Rasmussen (10/20) 44 41 10 B+