Bob CollinsWhat’s up with Hispanic voters?
The Pew Center, which puts out a dizzying number of surveys, is out with one today that claims Hispanic voters are less likely to vote in the upcoming election than they were in 2008, and hints that Latinos are the exception to the rule.
In 2008, Hispanics’ 2-to-1 support for Barack Obama’s presidential bid was credited with making the difference in four crucial swing states: Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. This year, analysts say Latinos could be key in dozens of congressional races. The Pew survey finds 65 percent favor the Democratic candidate in their local congressional district. By wide margins, Latinos also say the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics than the GOP does.
However, this lopsided show of support could have less impact if it turns out that 2008’s strong showing was a blip, and Latinos revert to their traditionally lower turnout levels.
There’s not a lot of surprise there. In mid-term elections, fewer people usually turn out to vote.
But it’s this assertion by Pew that is most interesting:
However, Hispanic registered voters appear to be less motivated than other voters to go to the polls. Just one-third (32%) of all Latino registered voters say they have given this year’s election “quite a lot” of thought. In contrast, half (50%) of all registered voters say the same. And when it comes to their intent to vote, half (51%) of Latino registered voters say they are absolutely certain they will vote in this year’s midterm election, while seven-in-ten (70%) of all registered voters say the same.
In recent midterm elections, Latinos have voted at lower rates than white non-Hispanics and black non-Hispanics, Pew says. “In 2006, one-third (32%) of Latino eligible voters (ages 18 or older and a U.S. citizen) said they voted. In comparison, more than half of white non-Hispanic eligible voters and more than four-in-ten (41%) black non-Hispanic voters said they voted.”
But while 70% of registered voters said they were “absolute certain” they would vote, 70% of all registered voters rarely do.
Even in Minnesota, which always has one of the highest turnout rates in the country (if not the highest), only about 60% of all voters vote, according to this graphic from the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office.
When Pew last did a mid-term survey like this — the last mid-term was 2006 — it found that the percentage of Latinos who are eligible to vote, is quite low.
But that’s not much of a factor in Minnesota, where 72% of the Hispanic population was eligible to vote.
So why don’t they It’s not because the immigration issue hasn’t been talked about much in this campaign. Hispanic voters rank education, jobs and health care as their top three issues of concern for this year’s congressional campaign, according to Pew.
The New York Times suggests that Latino voters are more disillusioned with the political process than whites, blacks, and Asians. It suggests that the furor surrounding the Arizona immigration law may have turned Latino voters off while energizing white voters.
MPR’s Midmorning will tackle the issue tomorrow at 9:45.
