What Nate thinks

There are two important steps to following the state canvassing board proceedings this week: (1) Click on the video link at the Secretary of State site, watch the results (maybe read the blog here) and then (2) See what Nate Silver thinks at fivethrirtyeight.com

So what does Nate think?

Note that the success rates cited below (he had calculated a 10-11% success rate for Coleman challenges) do not account for the dozens and dozens Coleman challenges that have gone into the “blue folder” — these are challenges not to the marks on the ballot but “process” challenges related to its propriety (such as whether the ballot’s duplicate is missing). If we count the blue folder ballots as unsuccessful challenges, then Coleman’s success rate is more like 7% — however, it would be premature to do that since we simply don’t know enough about them.

In other words: It’s anybody’s guess who’s ahead, who’s behind, or who’s still interested, especially with today’s Supreme Court decision, a copy of which for your bedtime reading can be found here.

The board will continue in the morning and there was some talk about going into the late night. If you’re finding the live-blogging helpful — or at least marginally interesting — I’ll be happy to do it on Friday. If not, that’s OK, too. There are other things happening in the world I can find.

  • macalum

    please do liveblog again.

  • Karen L. Dingle

    Yes, please do continue the live blogging on the twists and turns of the Senate race recount: I’m finding it very helpful, especially with the differing totals between MPR’s website and the Star Tribune. It’s also more timely than the Strib, and since things keep changing, and will again today, that’s extremely helpful. Thank you for doing this! (member since 1973, or maybe it’s 1976, but a very long time …. )