The half-empty economy

The true meaning of Christmas, the steady drumbeat of news stories suggests, is the bottom line for retailers. The writers are running out of adjectives to describe the 5-8% drop in seasonal sales.

“Gloomy,” Marketwatch says today. “Rotten,” says the Canadian Press. Huffington Post says retailers are “desperate” to salvage the season with post-Christmas sales. “Retailers get coal in their stockings,” NPR says.

What if sales had equaled or exceeded last year’s? Would analysts and retailers still be so down?

Let’s hit the News Cut “Wayback Machine,” and set the date for “any Christmas but this one.”

So here we are in 2007, where the MPR story described things as “bleak.”

But big sales will mean lots of red ink for retailers. Many retailers have gone out of business or closed stores already. Analysts warn that deep price cuts could kill even more retailers or drive them to close stores.

Even back in 2005, the stories warned of the danger of people spending less. In 2002, we told you things were “grim.”

The end-is-near. Again.