Poll: Minnesota GOP presidential nomination a toss up

A new survey by Public Policy Polling shows that all four Republican presidential candidates have a shot at winning Tuesday’s caucuses.

According to the Democratic polling firm, Rick Santorum has a slight lead with 29 percent of the vote. Mitt Romney has 27 percent of the vote, while Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul follow with 22 percent and 19 percent respectively.

PPP says Santorum’s lead in Minnesota and in Colorado, which also holds its caucuses on Tuesday, can be attributed to two factors: likability and the fact that no other candidates are attacking him.

In Colorado 68 percent of voters see Santorum favorably. In Minnesota, 72 percent of voters view him favorably – the highest of all the candidates.

“Wins for Santorum in Minnesota and Missouri would make it clear he’s a more viable alternative to Romney than Gingrich and give him a lot of momentum for the road ahead,” the firm reports.

There’s a lot more detail on the polling firm’s website, including analysis of Paul’s chances in Minnesota, which will largely depend on how many Independent voters show up on caucus night, and how well he does with older voters.

  • Here’s a bet that Mitt Romney could easily offer … $10,000 that PPP poll does not reflect the actual results.

    It’s a straw poll of people that actually show up … unless PPP called all the precinct captains, the odds are that the pooled group does not reflect who will actually participate.

    But here’s a $10,000 sure bet … Gingrich won’t win the Missouri caucuses … he did not register … so if Santorum wins it will be due to the fact that it was a Romney-Paul-And Other.

  • Lawrence Schreiber

    This will be my second caucus. Last time the Dr. Paul supporters kind of took over the caucuses. My concern is that while you may like your candidate really well I believe for the caucus system to really reflect voters’/supporters’ sentiments you need to show support for a candidate who can win. Mr.Rogers the TV personality was a really nice guy but really would never have a chance to win the Presidency – so why would you support him in a caucus?

  • Eric

    I don’t want to support the candidate who everyone says can win when everyone knows he is a “moderate”. We don’t need moderates who will continue our nation down the path of bankruptcy. We need RON PAUL as our president to snap our collective attitudes into reality. We are broke. We can’t afford perpetual wars. Our government is owned by the banks and Wall Street elite, and Ron isn’t afraid to talk about that fact.

    It should be obvious by now that Ron has fought an uphill battle against the media who either ignores or smears him. They invite him to debates but barely let him speak. Ron has been smeared as an isolationist, when in fact he wants peaceful relations with other nations, hardly an isolationist idea. Aren’t people curious enough to wonder why he is treated like this? Are his principles of liberty and free markets no longer valid ideas, to be replaced with slavery and economic repression? Have Americans been manipulated and exploited enough? Time for a REAL change.

  • Jeff Hagen

    Ron Paul has the most active and fervent followers. His supporters know the importance of getting involved and they will turn out to vote tomorrow and to run as delegates to the BPOU Convention. Because of Ron Paul, thousands and thousands of young people are getting involved in the party. The MNGOP old guard would be wise to welcome these young people. We all know the MNGOP sure could use all the support they can get. Liberty!

  • Brandon

    There is only one candidate that can honestly say they have never voted for a tax increase. Only one candidate who brings up the root cause of our failing economy; the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank, about as federal as Federal Express). Only one candidate who can say they don’t have any flip flopping policy in their history, at all.

    The guy makes a ton of sense, and that is why I am supporting RON PAUL at the caucus tomorrow evening.

    Ron Paul 2012!

  • Dave

    There is no chance of any republican winning the state of Minnesota against President Obama. Absolutely not a prayer. So with our votes let’s at least make a statement against the republican-version-of-Obama establishment and throw our voice behind someone like Ron Paul, who realizes – then practices – the need for radically different philosophies from the ones that have been put in place over the last 10 years rather than slightly different versions of the same thing.

    A Romney nomination from another state just prolongs this sickening democrat-lite current status of the republican party and the seemingly eternal careers of those who have worked so hard to maintain it…

  • Yenrab

    The last several successful presidents have come from somewhere in the Central Time Zone, including Reagan (born in Illinois), GHW Bush (Texas), Clinton (Arkansas), GW Bush (Texas), and now (successful or not, he is an Illinoisan) Obama. Those from the Eastern Time Zone include of course Carter, who was not a strong president, and if not for the pre-civil war presidents, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan (ranked as worst, second worst and third worst), Jimmie Carter would no doubt be ranked worst ever US president.

    Right now, Santorum (PA), Gingrich (GA), and Romney (MA) are all Eastern Time Zone people, leaving Texas’s Ron Paul as the only candidate from the Central Time Zone.

    While I can’t agree with everything that Ron Paul says, I do feel his home time zone makes him pretty much a shoo-in, and all Minnesotans should be getting behind him!

    Ron Paul is the only electable candidate among those seeking votes in tomorrow’s caucuses!

  • Wolf Aleks

    Mitt Romney is the only electable candidate among those seeking votes in today’s caucuses!

  • Nick

    Anyone who discredits Paul as a serious contender is being fooled by the media. He has the strongest supporters, the strongest most anti-obama message (a quality Santorum loves to flaunt) and does the best versus Obama in a head-to-head matchup. He is the only candidate who called the housing crisis 5 years before it happened, he’s the sole reason people are now concerned about the Federal Reserve, he’s the only anti-war candidate, the only candidate that opposes the Patriot Act and the NDAA, he’s a 12 term congressman and doctor for 30 years and has been married to the same woman for 55 years. People attack his age, but he’s got a smaller sheet than Gingrich and Romney and routinely bikes / walks 25 miles “just to feel good.” Not to mention both his parents died in their 90s. Honestly, what more can you want?

  • Jeff

    The Caucus is over. The MPR polls were wrong – again; Paul came in 2nd, not last. The comments left on this article and most blogs continue to demonstrate to me that active, thinking people have done their homework, studied the track record of all candidates and come to the opinion that this country needs a President like Ron Paul.

    I went to my caucus and this same scenario was repeated. The people that were in the know, the people that had the conviction to get up and talk about this country’s problems, the GOP platform, and how one candidate addresses both the problems and the platform BETTER than any other candidate – were RP supporters. And yet, at the end of the night, our precinct mirrored that of the state (1% turnout): Santorum 13, Paul 11, Romney 2, Gingrich 0.

    What’s wrong with Minnesotans that they are afraid to show up at a Caucus and TALK about their opinions and candidates? Stay Home! Stay Silent! Stay an Obama Socialist!