Shower/t-storm chances Saturday and Saturday night; AM shower chance on Sunday

Our Saturday weather is unsettled.

Parts of the Twin Cities metro area saw periods of showers Saturday morning.  There's a good chance that the metro area will see some periods of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening.

The thunderstorms are expected to develop in western Minnesota during the early afternoon, then spread eastward.

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Noon update:

Scott and Dakota counties of the southern Twin Cities metro area had some areas of showers and thunderstorms at midday Saturday, and they were tracking eastward....toward Pierce county of Wisconsin.  There were also a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in southwestern and south-central Minnesota at midday.

You can see the recent local NWS radar loop here.   The recent radar loop for southwestern Minnesota can be found here. The southeastern Minnesota loop of recent radar images can be found here.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening:

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NOAA HRRR simulated radar from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the HRRR loop, but the loop shows the general rain pattern within the model. We could see scattered morning showers in Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Sunday.

A few thunderstorms could be severe this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night in parts of southern Minnesota, with other parts of Minnesota (including a portion of the Twin Cities metro area) in a marginal risk of severe weather.

Here are details of the severe weather risk, from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible, while slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

The Storm Prediction Center will update the severe weather outlook several times throughout the day.

Temperature trends

The northern third of Minnesota will have highs mainly in the 60s Saturday afternoon, with some 50s near Lake Superior. Highs will be mainly in the 70s in central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Twin Cities metro area temps are expected to peak around the mid 70s, and a few spots in southwestern Minnesota could top 80 degrees. Our average high temp is 79 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday highs will feature a lot of 60s, with some 70s in the south:

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We'll probably touch 70 in parts of the metro area.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s Monday, followed by mid 70s Tuesday through Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.