Warmer temps and melting snow; how much will the rivers rise this week?

Astronomical spring arrives at 4:58 p.m. CDT on Wednesday. It'll look and feel more and more like spring this week, as temps rise and our snow cover shrinks.

Temperature trends

Monday afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 30s in much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. We could touch 40 in the Twin Cities metro area. Our average metro high temp is 42 degrees this time of year.

Tuesday highs pop into the 40s in many spots:

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Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by around 50 on Thursday, then low to mid 50s on Friday. We could see highs in the mid to upper 50s next weekend.

Snow chances

Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see some areas of fog and scattered light snow showers and flurries overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

Another batch of light snow showers could move into northwestern Minnesota late Monday and spread southeastward Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday through Tuesday morning:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry, with a rain shower chance moving into Minnesota late Saturday into early Sunday.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Flooding update

Major flooding is forecast along the Cottonwood River at New Ulm, Minnesota:

Flood Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1037 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in

Minnesota...

Sand Creek at Jordan affecting Scott County

Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County

Cannon River at Northfield affecting Dakota and Rice Counties

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in

Minnesota..

Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County

Cottonwood River Above Springfield affecting Brown County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around...Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station

for the latest information concerning this flood event.

&&

MNC015-182136-

/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

/NWUM5.3.SM.190317T0518Z.190318T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/

1037 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for

The Cottonwood River at New Ulm.

* until further notice.

* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 12.9 feet.

* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.

* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.1 feet by

after midnight tonight then begin falling.

* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flood waters reach the back of the

campground at Flandrau SP

* Impact...At 13.1 feet...Flood waters begin to impact Cottonwood

Street west of the river.

* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flood waters begin to impact low lying areas...and some roads along the river.

Here's the Sunday evening hydrograph for the Cottonwood River at New Ulm, which shows recent and forecast river levels:

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NOAA/NWS/USGS

You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the NWS Twin Cities site. Areas with flood warnings are shaded light green on their main page, and here’s how the map looked Sunday evening:

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NWS Twin Cities

The flood watch to the southeast is for possible flooding along the Middle Fork Zumbro River at Pine Island and Berne, Minnesota, due to ice jams.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

As of Sunday evening, this was the hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise more than 5 feet by next weekend:

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NOAA/NWS/USGS

The Mississippi River will continue to rise at St Paul and at several other locations after next weekend. Based on probabilities issued by the NWS earlier this month, there is a 95% chance that the Mississippi River will reach the 17.5 foot level at the St. Paul gauge this spring, and there's about a 58% chance of reaching 22.5 feet:

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NOAA/NWS

You can click the "probability information" tab at the AHPS site to generate similar charts for other locations along rivers.

Here’s the hydrograph for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, which is expected to rise about 4 and one-half feet by next weekend:

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NOAA/NWS/USGS

And finally, the hydrograph for the Minnesota River at Jordan, which is expected to rise more than 5 feet by next weeknd:

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NOAA/NWS/USGS

Check the NWS links for the latest info on our spring flooding.

I hope that you have a good week!