Slightly warmer on Wednesday; Hawaii braces for a hurricane

The temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport peaked at 77 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

It was our coolest official Twin Cities high temp since the 72 degree reading on August 2.

It'll be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday:

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Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach around 80 degrees on Thursday, but only 77 on Friday. We could see highs in the middle 80s this coming weekend.

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Our average high this time of year is 80 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Rain chances

Western Minnesota could see some showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon.

The Minnesota State Fair starts this Thursday, and most of opening day should be dry.  There's a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the Twin Cities metro area Thursday evening. The shower and thunderstorm chance lingers over the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota Thursday night and into Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday through Friday:

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NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Thursday through Friday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Hurricane Lane

A major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, is churning away in the Pacific Ocean:

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NOAA Infrared to visible satellite loop of Hurricane Lane on August 21

Hurricane Lane is currently rated a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale:

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National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Lane's projected path takes it close to Hawaii by early Thursday:

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NOAA/NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hurricane watches have been posted from Molokai to the big island of Hawaii.

Here's the latest public advisory from NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 28

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018

1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.3N 153.2W

ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII

ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the

Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor

the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or

Hurricane Watches will likely be issued this afternoon or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by the National Weather Service office in

Honolulu Hawaii.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located

by U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude

14.3 North, longitude 153.2 West. Lane is moving toward the

west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to

continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected

Wednesday into Thursday. On the forecast track, the center

of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian

Islands from Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher

gusts. Lane is a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is

forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a

dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as recently reported by hurricane

hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the

Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night, with hurricane

conditions possible on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected

to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the

weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected

to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated

maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian

Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island and spreading

across the remainder of the island chain Wednesday through

Thursday. These swells will produce large and potentially

damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing

shorelines.

The NWS Honolulu office will be posting updated localized forecasts for Hawaii.