Scattered thunderstorms Friday; 90s in many spots this weekend
It'll feel summery the next several days, with very warm temps and sticky dew points.
There won't be any complaints about chilly weather this Memorial Day weekend!
Temperature trends
Friday afternoon highs will top 90 degrees in much of southern and central Minnesota, with some 80s in the far north. There could be a few spots along the north shore of Lake Superior that only reach the 70s.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
Saturday highs will be similar:
Sunday will also be very warm:
The Twin Cities metro area could reach the mid 90s on Sunday.
Highs in the lower 90s are expected in the south on Memorial Day, with mostly 80s central and north:
Rain opportunities
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger over parts of southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this Friday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin later Friday afternoon and evening. In the Twin Cities metro area, our shower and thunderstorm chance is anytime from about mid-afternoon through this Friday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
From southwestern Minnesota through the metro area and northeastern Minnesota, there is a marginal risk of severe weather, meaning that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:
The main severe weather threats Friday afternoon and evening will be damaging winds and large hail.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.
Saturday and Sunday should be rain-free over most of Minnesota, but there's a chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm in northeastern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.
The weather is a bit unsettled on Memorial Day, with a chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm anywhere in Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern on Monday:
The coverage is probably overdone a bit, but the color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.
Rainy southeast
National Hurricane Center forecasters are watching a low pressure system near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico:
They estimate that it has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Heavy rains are expected over the southeastern U.S. this weekend into early next week.
Here are NOAA's projected five-day rainfall totals:
______________________________________________________________________________
Late morning update
The National Hurricane Center notes that we now have subtropical storm Alberto:
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.
Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend,
followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track,
Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning,
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.
Here's Alberto's projected path:
_______________________________________________________________________________
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.