Winter halfway over; tracking Sunday snow chances
Our free arctic vacation lasts about 24 more hours.
Temperatures hover a few degrees either side of the zero mark one more night. Milder Pacific breezes begin to blow across Minnesota Wednesday.
By Thursday it will feel like early spring to many of us. Our recently icy roads will improve dramatically later this week. Lines may form at your local Dairy Queen by Friday afternoon.
Winter's halftime
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Winter has reached the halfway point. So far we're running about 2.6 degrees below average in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. Snowfall is running 15 inches behind average in the Twin Cities, for now.
So far we've endured 16 days at or below zero in the Twin Cities this winter. That's well on the way to our annual average of 22.7 days.
Milder days ahead
Our overall weather pattern looks significantly milder for the next two weeks. I see many more days at or above average, with relatively few subzero days in the Twin Cities for the rest of January.
Seattle breeze
The medium-range upper air pattern suggests more frequent Pacific air masses. That translates into more thaws in the next two weeks, and fewer subzero nights.
Some model temperature trends favor another shot of mild air toward the end of January.
Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model. Note the absence of subzero temps.
Sunday snow chances
Snow potential is still there for Sunday. NOAA's GFS has bumped snowfall north again into the Twin Cities late Sunday and Monday. It lays the heaviest snow band through southeast Minnesota.
The overnight European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is cranking out some big-time snowfall numbers for the Twin Cities.
Again, it's too early to be confident about inches yet. But this gives you an idea there's a growing chance that somebody close to home will get smacked by heavy snow Sunday night.
Stay tuned and keep the shovel handy.