Another January Thaw ahead, Sunday snow lurking
Say good bye to the deep freeze.
Milder breezes begin to blow into Minnesota Wednesday. Tomorrow's breeze will still feel brisk, but temperatures rebound into the mid 20s Wednesday afternoon. Our next January Thaw kicks into high gear Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will push the 40 degree mark in the Twin Cities Friday.
Thermal ridge: Feeling 90 degrees warmer Friday?
Meteorologists call the axis of warmest temperatures the "thermal ridge." The thermal ridge passes over Minnesota Friday afternoon near peak temperature time. That should allow temperatures to soar into the mid-40s in western Minnesota along the Buffalo Ridge.
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I wouldn't be shocked to see a 50-degree temperature in western Minnesota Friday afternoon. Wind chills hit -40 in western Minnesota last night. That means it will feel about 90 degrees warmer by Friday afternoon. Welcome to Minnesota.
Sunday snow lurking
All the major models are winding up a fairly potent snow system Sunday. My confidence is high that a storm will dump a band of significant snow in the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. The big question remains the storm track. In other words, confidence is still low on where the heavy band of snow will set up.
Keep in mind this system is still 5 days out. Storm tracks will likely change a few times between now and Saturday. But I want to share some of the early solutions that are coming in for Sunday into Monday.
NOAA's GFS model continues to place the highest chance of heavy snow across southeast Minnesota. In this scenario, the Twin Cities rides the edge of the heavy snow band. The Twin Cities would see significant accumulations, especially in the south and east metro. The heaviest snow band would set up from Albert Lea through Owatonna, Northfield, Red Wing, and Eau Claire.
Euro: Twin Cities gets smacked
Tuesday's European model (ECMWF) run cranks out a pile of snow for the Twin Cities Sunday night into Monday. Again, it's way too early to be confident about inches. But even half of this solution would double the biggest snowfall in the Twin Cities so far this winter.
Bottom line: I'm still confident about a significant snowfall event in the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. I'm far less confident about where the heavy snow band will set up.
Stay tuned.
Texas trouble
Meanwhile the cold air has penetrated deep into the heart of Texas. Winter storm warnings flew today, and some icing occurred. In a land largely unequipped for ice and snow, even a little ice is a big problem.