Latest Irma tracks increase effects for Florida Gulf Coast
Now it's pretty much wait and see what happens.
Forecasts for Hurricane Irma have targeted Florida for several days. There's been plenty of lead time to prepare for a major hurricane landfall. Now is the time when we watch and see where Irma lands. The precise track of Irma will dictate local impacts in the next 72 hours.
Massive storm
The first thing that jumps out at you looking at Irma from space is her gigantic footprint. Irma's massive circumference dwarfs the width of the Florida peninsula.
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Tracks: Slight westward shift
Irma's tracks have shifted slightly west in the past 24 hours. The European model has been remarkably consistent all week, and on the western side of the spaghetti model forecast envelope.
If Irma takes the western path that will bring greater impacts to Florida's west coast. The Euro model now brings Irma's devastating eyewall very close to Naples and Fort Myers.
Massive storm
Even if the eyewall favors Florida's southwest coast, the Miami area will still feel major hurricane impacts from Irma. Wind gusts could still reach 100 to 120 mph in Miami. Wind gusts to 100 mph in Irma's spiraling bands could cover much of Florida. This is why meteorologists tell people not to focus solely on the eye and landfall.
Storm surge
A more westward track would deliver at least some good news to Miami and Florida's east coast. Storm surge will still be damaging, but would not be as high as a direct eyewall landfall near Miami. Updated projections show storm surge could reach 9 to 12 feet in the Keys and southwest Florida. Closer to 5 to 10 feet is now more likely near Miami. That may still cause major problems.
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Warm water: Rocket fuel
Irma's intensity still has the potential to flare before landfall as she passes over very warm water in the next 24 hours. Water temps between 86 and 88 degrees lie in wait between Florida and Cuba.
Huge hurricane force wind field
Hurricane force winds extend about 75 miles out from Irma's center. That huge wind field packs 5-times more energy than Category 5 Hurricane Andrew smacked Florida with 25 years ago.
Atlantic hurricane season gone wild
By several measures, we are witnessing the most intense Atlantic hurricane period on record. Irma's little brother Jose rides in tow.
With Irma, Jose and Katia all churning at once, Thursday was the most active Atlantic hurricane day on record overall.
Minnesota: Summery relapse
We can count our weather blessings in Minnesota these days. Our forecast is more August than September for the next several days.
Sending thoughts of safety and strength safe to Florida for what's ahead in the next few days and weeks.