Unsettled weather Wednesday; U.S. has second warmest January through July

There was a symphony of lawnmowers in my St. Paul neighborhood late Tuesday afternoon.

I think the word is out that showers and thunderstorms are in our forecast for Wednesday and Thursday!

Rain chances

A cold front will move into eastern parts of North Dakota and South Dakota on Wednesday, spreading showers and thunderstorms toward Minnesota.

The showers and thunderstorms could begin in western Minnesota Wednesday morning, then spread eastward in the afternoon.

Much of Minnesota will probably see periods of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

It will probably rain in some areas that look dry in the forecast loop, but the loop shows the general rain pattern that is expected.

Our Friday through Sunday should be mostly dry, but an isolated shower could pop up during the afternoon or early evening hours of Friday and Saturday.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night in much of western Minnesota and part of central Minnesota:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Temperature trends

Highs in the 70s will be common across Minnesota on Wednesday:

Most spots should see 70s on Thursday, but 60s are expected in northeastern Minnesota:

Twin Cities metro area highs will probably be in the upper 70s Friday through Sunday.

Second warmest January through July

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, the contiguous United States just completed its second warmest January through July period:

The report from NOAA's NCEI also states:

The July average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 75.7°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average and was the 10th warmest July in 123 years of record-keeping. Much-above-average temperatures were observed across the West and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The year-to-date (January–July) average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 54.5°F, 3.2°F above average and second warmest on record. This was slightly warmer than the same period in 2006 and 1.2°F cooler than the record set in 2012.

In the Twin Cities, July 2017 was 1.5 degrees above normal.

How about the state of Minnesota?

The July summary, from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

July 2017 finished a tad warmer than normal for Minnesota. The preliminary average statewide temperature for the state was 70.4 degrees, which is .1 (one tenth of a degree) above normal. The warmest temperature found was 101 degrees at Browns Valley in west central Minnesota on July 17th, and the coldest temperature found was 37 degrees at Embarrass on July 14th. The Twin Cities wound up being 1.5 degrees above normal for the month and clocked five days of 90 degrees or above for high temperatures, very close to the 30 year average.

Tropical Storm Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin will enter the Bay of Campeche this Tuesday evening, as it continues to move westward.

Here's the latest, from the National Hurricane Center:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was

located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Franklin is

moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A mainly

westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the

forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of

Campeche in a few hours, move westward across the Bay of Campeche

tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico

Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

A strengthening trend is likely to begin when the center moves

over water, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at

landfall in the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of

Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with

isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern

portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall

totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches

are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern

Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro and eastern

San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce

life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions may be occurring over portions of

the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions

are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm

Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

through Wednesday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by

as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the

immediate coast near and to the north of where the center

makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Here's Franklin's projected path:

The National Hurricane Center will issue updates on Tropical Storm Franklin every few hours.